I've found a pattern to my fantasy football writings. Even in other leagues. My posts usually start with some type of opening line that I want to sound more clever than it actually is, then I follow it up some type of justification as for why I'm writing this post or why I haven't written a post in a long while. Generally I have some kind of excuse.
"Oh I've been busy"
"My team sucks and I'm just not that into it right now."
"Because I feel like it."
Well, here's my excuse now: I'm growing up. Yes, I'm busier as I learn this new job. And yes, I still read three or four fantasy sites. But truth be told, I don't have the patience to keep doing this. I need to be really motivated to write out anything on here (luckily I am this time). It's just that, at this point, I'd much rather be doing other value added things.
So my excuse is, I'm getting older. Which means these will get fewer and further between.
But today you're lucky. Because, like I said, I'm motivated. With my season now almost irreparably in the gutter, I've turned my attention towards themes around the future. And thanks to Tim's unbridled love for Bill Simmons, I've been influenced to write a post in the spirit of Simmons' "trade value" columns (I do feel dirty for being motivated by a Bill Simmons column by the way).
In that vein, I'm here to introduce the 2015 subject-to-change Trade Value column. This could be a two-part deal, with the first article being geared towards keepers and the second towards trade values for this season only. But like I said, I won't commit to that at all. But hey, let's look at the players you're all going to have trouble trading for!
Here's my methodology:
- I chose the 10 players below. These 10 are totally chosen by me and are, in my opinion, the 10 players with the most trade value
- Much like the Simmons column, these are ranked in order of most to least tradeable. Think of it this way, if a guy is higher on a list than another, then the owner of the lower player is more likely to accept a trade of his guy than the owner of the higher player
- Even though I chose the 10 players, I created a scoring system to rank the ten. The system has four criteria, with a 1-10 scoring system (10 being the best score possible):
- Acquisition cost: The cost it was to acquire the player. This is for keeper purposes.
- Value to the Owner: The owner's personal perception of the player. Each owner gave me their opinion on this.
- Current Output: How well the player is doing right now
- Potential Output: The best realistic outcome for the player
While the rankings are a bit subjective, I think they give a pretty good view rank
10. Randall Cobb
Owner: Katarya
Acquisition Cost: 7 points
Value to the Owner: 7
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 9
Total: 30
Katarya is a bit of a hoarder when it comes to collecting keepers. He could have, oh I don't know, two keepers on this list, and yet he still is looking for more. Exhibit A? Trading away Luck for Matt Jones. But meanwhile, he's got Randall Cobb, one of the best receivers on one of the best passing offenses. He's already put in a Top 10 campaign in his career, and could put in a Top 5 campaign if everything breaks his way, hence the potential output rating of 9. What really puts Cobb on this list, though, is his Acquisition Cost. The guy has Cobb for another two years, and has Cobb for $11 this year. That's some serious value for a guy with Cobb's track record and potential. The reason he falls in these rankings, however, is the sole fact that Katarya is so flaky with his perception of his players that Cobb's value to Katarya is less than other players on this list. Cobb is super solid, but the Katarya stereotype singlehandedly drops him in the rankings.
9. Tyler Eifert
Owner: Baron
Acquisition Cost: 5
Value to the Owner: 8
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 9
Total: 31
Eifert is beasting right now. Best pickup Siems has had in an otherwise lost season. He's currently the TE2 overall, and has put up two 20+ point performances. Unfortunately, he's got a man named Gronk playing in front of him, so his Potential Output score drops to a 9 since he probably wouldn't finish as a TE1. As Baron put it to me "He's a Top 5 TE, but he's no Gronk". Essentially, Eifert has hit his ceiling, but it could hold up for a while. He may join the ranks of a Jimmy Graham in the I'm-really-good-but-not-good-enough-to-be-the-best category for TEs. Another killer for Baron is the simple fact that he picked up Eifert, so his cost to keep will be roughly 3/4 of his ESPN value next year, taking out a lot of the savings.
8. Martavis Bryant
Owner: Bryan
Acquisition Cost: 8
Value to the Owner: 8
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 7
Total: 32
One game is all it took for Bryant to burst onto the scene. And he did it with something called a Landry Jones. This is a physical freak of nature playing on an elite passing offense (once Big Ben is healthy). So yes, the current output number is generous due to the incredibly small sample size, but it was still a very healthy debut as it is. Bryan also got Bryant for $8 in the draft this year, which could be a very, very good deal if he keeps blowing up. The only problem for Bryant is the presence of Antonio Brown. Sure, he could blow up for a couple of games, but once Big Ben gets back, he's going to be hellbent on restoring Antonio Brown to the top. So there is some inversion. I mean, if Bryant does well, the Acquisition Cost goes up, but if Brown does at the expense of Bryant, then Bryant's Acquisition Cost gets better. Yet at that point, Bryan might not even be inclined to keep Bryant. Still, if you look at the offensive potential, the cost Bryan actually paid for Bryant, and what he's done already in the league, this could be a very good keeper. Just gotta laid off that kush though.
7. Devonta Freeman
Owner: Tim
Acquisition Cost: 5
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 9
Total: 33
Talk about the pickup of the year so far. Give him credit, he made one heck of a pickup. But don't give him too much. Freeman was awful the first game of the year, and Tevin Coleman was supposed to start. It just so happens that Coleman got hurt, Tim made the add, and the rest is history. Coleman is the RB1 right now in fantasy land, hence the perfect output number, but I don't see him finishing as the RB1. In fact, his score of 9 for Potential Output is solely dependent on this year as I could see him finishing Top 5, but then never reaching that plateau again. Add in the fact that his Acquisition Cost is five since he is the other pickup on this list, and he falls down the ranking. But Tim should just ride this wave for as long as he can.
On a side note, Tim drafted Melvin Gordon to be a potential keeper this year, and he still has Alshon under contract. I'm excited to see what he does for his keeper. And by excited I mean I'm jealous that he has four possible keepers. Foreshadowing folks. It's not just for professional writers.
6. Demaryius Thomas
Owner: Dan
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 7
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 10
Total: 33
Peyton man...Singlehandedly tearing apart the value of all the players on his team. I mean, Baron had to be more excited about Emmanuel Sanders and CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman earlier in the year. But not now. And the Old Peyton Effect has taken it's toll on Thomas as well. Dan would explain to me that before the draft he would have ranked Thomas at a 9, but now he's more of a 7.3 (leave it to Dan to provide exact decimals). But Thomas' play has really suffered. He's barely ahead of Rishard Matthews as the 20th ranked WR, and that's before his bye. I mean, he's still capable of being the #1 overall receiver, but he needs a QB that can throw it downfield, and until the Broncos actually remove Peyton, he won't be seeing that. Dan also gets a major boost in the Acquisition Cost category for his contract for Thomas, which still sees him paying Thomas $20 for one more year.
5. Amari Cooper
Owner: Joe
Acquisition Cost: 8
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 10
Total: 35
There's actually a pretty big gap between Thomas' total points and the next three guys on the list, who all come in at 35 or 36 points. The reason Cooper is the lowest of the three is less of a knock on him and more about the advantages the other two players give their owners. Because, fact is, Cooper could finish a season as the #1 overall WR. And with that kind of potential, and at the cost Joe got him for ($14), he's a highly valuable player to have. Joe knows this. I had a back and forth over why he would take Cooper over the #1 guy on this list, but he was adamant in the future of the Raiders offense, including the growth of Cooper and Carr together. Cooper currently sits as the WR27, but that's with a bye included. He should climb up the rankings. But good luck trying to trade Joe for this guy. You'd have to sell more than the kitchen sink.
4. Allen Robinson
Owner: Jose
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 9
Total: 36
Currently the WR5 in fantasy football, Robinson has become a red zone and deep threat monster for the Jaguars. Yes, he plays for the Jaguars. And yes, Blake Bortles is his QB. But despite all that, he's still put up some serious numbers. And he's doing it in his second year. He'll have his bye in two weeks, so his ranking should fall, but the fact that he's done this in his second year speaks volume to his growth potential. The big reason I have Robinson ahead of Cooper is for one reason, I spent $3 to draft him this year. Robinson will be a great keeper deal going into next year if he keeps up this pace. But with his physical profile and growth so far, he could easily finish a season in a top 5 WR.
3. Todd Gurley
Owner: Tim
Acquisition Cost: 7
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 10
Total: 36
I thought I'd let more bias get in the way of this pick, but Gurley has to finish ahead of Robinson for the simple fact that he's a running back. And that he was a Top 10 player. And that he is considered the best RB prospect since AP (although the last time I heard that was from Baron describing Trent Richardson. So...). But if you want an idea of how much Tim values the guy, I offered him Brandon Marshall, Aaron Rodgers, Jeremy Hill, and who knows else, and Tim shot the deal down QUICKLY. He paid a lot (at the time) for Gurley with the expectation of keeping him, so he's already biased, and two 15 point games later and Tim is all about it. This guy has the potential to finish as the #1 overall player in fantasy more than once in his career, so there's no denying the potential. The only reason he falls is because Tim will have to pay a decent price for Gurely (still below market value) for the next few seasons.
2. Rob Gronkowski
Owner: Katarya
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 10
Total: 38
There isn't much to say about Gronk other than Yo Soy Fiesta. Well, that and he's the #1 TE in fantasy by far and he's under a very reasonable contract for Katarya. Add in the fact that he could be the #1 TE any year he wanted to and this is almost the perfect keeper value. Almost. Again, Katarya being Katarya keeps Gronk out of the number one spot as, more than any owner outside of me, I can see him trading away Gronk. So the Value goes to 9. But simply put, there aren't many better situations than this.
1. DeAndre Hopkins
Owner: Sean
Acquisition Cost: 10
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 10
Total: 40
Now this is the perfect keeper. You could make an argument for Cooper being better, Robinson having better value, Gronk just being the guy, and Gurley being the best at the thinnest position. But let's counter your thoughts with some facts. DeAndre Hopkins is the WR1 in fantasy, and he's 10 points ahead of #2. That gap is bigger than the gap between the WR3 and WR8. If you want to talk about dominance, there it is. What's more impressive is he's doing this without a real QB. I mean, Cooper and Robinson have futures with their QBs, but Hopkins should get a better one in the draft or as a free agent soon. That gives him the potential for more overall WR1 output. Sean also has Hopkins on a five year contract where he only paid $6 for him this year. $6! Again, another reason he blows the other competition out of the water. So if you want to talk what the perfect keeper would look like, it's currently DeAndre Hopkins. I'll let Sean sum it up: "Yea, no way I'm trading him away..."
