Writing a post has become an annual tradition.  I'll write it once sometime during the late spring or summer, and then we'll forget about it until next year.  But this year I'm inspired in early May - which, surprisingly, is actually earlier than last year if you'd believe that - to write a post because I'm in a weird position.

I'm league champion.  

I've avoided talking about it to pretty much anyone since I won because I know the way I did it rubbed some people the wrong way (foreshadowing!), and I recognize that fact.  It's not the best path to travel, but it's the path I chose nonetheless.  And because of that, there's two things I get to do as league champion: pick who I play in Week 1, and pick the name of the last place team in the league.  In this case, that's Brock.

Choosing who you play in Week 1 is something I instituted in the league to reward the league champion, and it's a fun little wrinkle for me when setting up the schedule.  Unfortunately I don't get to pick divisions.  That distinction goes to the division winners from the year prior, so Dan and Danny will draft those, and then pick their division names (foreshadowing!).

But honestly, between you all and me, I never imagined myself in this position of getting to pick who I play in week 1.  And, just because I'm me and have spent years breaking down stats, I don't think there's a more appropriate way to choose my opponent than using stats.  So here's what I want to do.

1. Take Week 1 points scored for the last four seasons
2. Rank all players by those points scored
3. Pick either the best or the worst points scorer

And here's what the results yield, in reverse order:

10. Jeff
9. Jose
8. Katarya
7. Sean
6. Tim
5. Danny
4. Baron
3. Bryan
2. Dan
1. Joe

Surprised?  Baron has slowly been moving back to his winning ways, but the fact that Joe has had the best scoring average over the last four seasons in opening games might surprise you.  Well I'm not one to back down to a challenge.  I see you Joe.  Week 1 it is!

As for Jeff's team name, only one thing made sense: making the dumbest pun I could using LoL terminology.  Therefore, next year Jeff your team name will be: Rekklessly Gank My Bottom Lane.  Logo to come. I also reserve the right to change that before the season starts.

Hope you enjoy it!

Now onto the business end of this post.  

Since this last season ended, I've been giving a lot of thought to what we can do, as a league and using ESPN's tools/rules, to reduce two big things that have been bothering people:

1. Tanking
2. Creating super teams by trading money away

Seeing the reaction a lot of people had in GroupMe chat after I made those trades with Tim and Joe was probably the most reaction I've seen from our league as a whole in quite some time.  So it's a sensitive subject and something I think people would want to see addressed.  

We've already discussed moving the trade deadline up, and that's been universally agreed upon.  It's a definitive measure to try and combat possible tanking by forcing league players to make a decision earlier in the season whether they'll be buyers or sellers - and would conceivably make decisions like mortgaging the future for this year (or vice versa) harder to come by.  

However, I look at that as just one thing that could be done to prevent crazy tanking or money trades.  Because, if I'm being frank, it wouldn't totally deter me from trading money.  All I would do is make the decision to say I'm either all in or out earlier in the season.  If you want me to be totally upfront with you, the bulk of my thinking these last five or so months has been: How do I prevent myself from doing what I've been doing?  

And so I've come to two suggestions that I would like to propose we look at and try.  I want to preface this by saying that I've spoken to about half the league to try and vet out some wrinkles with these proposals and to get general feedback.  I'm going to frame the rule changes into four parts - what the current rule is, what the proposes rule is, what the factual consequences will be, and what my hopeful and desired consequences will be.  Without further adieu:

• 4 teams make the playoffs
• Playoff matchups are two weeks long
• Playoffs begin Week 13 and end Week 16

• 6 teams make the playoffs
• Top 2 seeds get a bye
• Playoff matchups are one week long
• Playoffs begin Week 14 and end Week 16
• Higher seeded teams are given a point advantage

• Regular Season matchups extend to Week 13 instead of Week 12
• Playoff matchups decrease from two weeks to one week
• A bye week is added for the top 2 teams to qualify for the playoffs
• Higher seeded teams go into their matchups with a point advantage

• Increasing playoff entrants means more teams involved for a spot until the end of the season
• This would potentially lead to fewer trades for future money/assets as more teams would consider themselves contenders later into the season
• One week playoffs could additionally prevent owners from trading money if they view a one week playoff as too risky to mortgage the future on
• Having bye weeks would also mean that owners are competing for a top two spot, thereby adding a layer of incentive for owners late into the season beyond making the playoffs
• Giving higher seeds a set point advantage rewards teams that performed the best in the regular season
• A longer regular season allows for more opportunity for owners to play later into the regular NFL season before their season ending

Out of sheer boredom, I'm going to rank everyone's team name from last year based on whatever criteria I want.  What I say is final.

10. Deeper Than Joses Xmas Gift

There's a lot wrong here.  Let's start with the poor punctuation.  C'mon Bryan, at least try to admit that it was my Christmas gift.  I was good boy this year and earned whatever gift came my way.  Secondly, much like the rent, the name is too damn high.  Or long.  Whatever.  I think Bryan's running out of good insults for me.

9. Dumpster Fire

Much like my "My Season? I don't wanna taco about it" team name from last year, Katarya went with the I've-given-up-on-my-season moniker for about half the year.  Here's the thing, it's actually a catchy name!  I kinda like it as a full season team name.  Easy to say, rolls off the tongue, and not too many syllables.  Aw yea, it's a good burn.  Unfortunately, it loses points due to only being used for about half the season.  And the fact that it was a concessionary name.

8. Montana Man Buns

This was a strong candidate for last place.  Why?  Because for years Siems has given us some strong, historical alliteration.  Or, at the very least, something that reminded us of our past leaders or glory (I'm not crediting Ol' Hickory).  But this last year he goes with Man Buns?  Ugh...go have an IPA and tell me about Arcade Fire some more Erin.

7. Baron Nashor

This is purely down here because to this day I still say it wrong.  Yes, I've watched a bit of LoL online before despite still not knowing what the hell is going on.  And every time some team goes out and slays that damn dragon, they its name and I realize every time I say it wrong.  I never learn.  So yea, either have them officially change the pronunciation of this damn thing, or it stays in the bottom half of my ever-so-finite rankings.

6. Sydney Pinga Poppers

I have no idea what a Pinga is, but I'm assuming some type of drug?  *Googles Pinga*  Ah, apparently it's a Bollywood movie.  So, that being the case, and since I've already started typing Joe into the 6th place rank, that fact doesn't have any bearing on my decision making.  But I think what knocks this down a peg is that he's so close to some seriously strong alliteration.  Couldn't have gone with Perth Joe?

5. Cam Newton's Pussy Riot

Now we start getting into the classic names.  The ones that have stood the test of time.  First up is Danny's team, which sits at the 5 ranking because, even without Cam Newton, Danny has had his team named after the guy and an event that happened four or five years ago.  One might even call them the good ol' days (just not for that band).  *Editors note, I didn't bother to check to see if Danny actually has Cam Newton on his team

4. Sass Squatches

See?  This is a name I can get behind.  Behind the obvious logo awesomeness, it's dripping with alliteration.  It also sticks with Dan's historical theme of finding a photo and naming his team after that.  He's like most pop-artists nowadays: find a beat and write a song around that.  You can't call him the Adele of the league, that's for sure.  He does get knocked down to 4th purely because the names above his are just that much better.

3. Mr. Balloon Hands

One of only two names in this league to never change, Sean has one of the most iconic brands in the league.  It's stoic, reserved, and historically very good.  Also, he loves lighthouses.  This isn't the catchiest name out there.  It doesn't roll off your tongue or stick in your head.  But it sticks.  And by golly, you know it means something when you read it.

2. Chicago Rillas

I mean, the dude lives in LA now.  So it should be the LA Rillas, but they already have the Lakers, and they don't need two teams who's names are stolen from other cities and that don't make sense.  I mean, they have such names that were created in LA like the Chargers, Clippers, Dodgers, Giants, and Rams.  All of them original names to the city.  But alas, this is now the most iconic name in the league.  Never to have changed and with two championships to its name, this team has earned the #2 spot.  Wait, #2 spot?

1. Rodeo Creamwagon

Just say it.  Over and over and over and over.  It's catchy, it's witty, and it's glorious.  I'm changing it next year.

Hey friends!  Remember this blog?  I sure do.  

Posts on here are fewer and further between than they ever have been, and that shouldn't be a surprise.  We've got the GroupMe now to keep us entertained, and I've given up any pursuit of rule changes, so it's a happy medium.  But that doesn't mean I won't use this blog every once in a blue moon to do a post about whatever's tickling my fancy at the moment.  And luckily for you, I have two subjects tickling my fancy at the same time!

Guess what?  Guess WHAT?!

I haven't done any studying this year for fantasy football.  I've sat down in front of a computer, thought "Okay, let's do this", then gotten really bored and walked away.

But that doesn't mean I've done nothing fantasy football related!  Au contrair mo'fair (or whatever)

I've found a pattern to my fantasy football writings.  Even in other leagues.  My posts usually start with some type of opening line that I want to sound more clever than it actually is, then I follow it up some type of justification as for why I'm writing this post or why I haven't written a post in a long while.  Generally I have some kind of excuse.

"Oh I've been busy"

"My team sucks and I'm just not that into it right now."

"Because I feel like it."

Well, here's my excuse now: I'm growing up.  Yes, I'm busier as I learn this new job.  And yes, I still read three or four fantasy sites.  But truth be told, I don't have the patience to keep doing this.  I need to be really motivated to write out anything on here (luckily I am this time).  It's just that, at this point, I'd much rather be doing other value added things.

So my excuse is, I'm getting older.  Which means these will get fewer and further between.

But today you're lucky.  Because, like I said, I'm motivated.  With my season now almost irreparably in the gutter, I've turned my attention towards themes around the future.  And thanks to Tim's unbridled love for Bill Simmons, I've been influenced to write a post in the spirit of Simmons' "trade value" columns (I do feel dirty for being motivated by a Bill Simmons column by the way).

In that vein, I'm here to introduce the 2015 subject-to-change Trade Value column.  This could be a two-part deal, with the first article being geared towards keepers and the second towards trade values for this season only.  But like I said, I won't commit to that at all.  But hey, let's look at the players you're all going to have trouble trading for!

Here's my methodology:

- I chose the 10 players below.  These 10 are totally chosen by me and are, in my opinion, the 10 players with the most trade value
- Much like the Simmons column, these are ranked in order of most to least tradeable.  Think of it this way, if a guy is higher on a list than another, then the owner of the lower player is more likely to accept a trade of his guy than the owner of the higher player
- Even though I chose the 10 players, I created a scoring system to rank the ten.  The system has four criteria, with a 1-10 scoring system (10 being the best score possible):
            - Acquisition cost: The cost it was to acquire the player.  This is for keeper purposes.
            - Value to the Owner: The owner's personal perception of the player.  Each owner gave me their opinion on this.
            - Current Output: How well the player is doing right now
            - Potential Output: The best realistic outcome for the player

While the rankings are a bit subjective, I think they give a pretty good view rank

10. Randall Cobb

Owner: Katarya
Acquisition Cost: 7 points
Value to the Owner: 7
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 9
Total: 30
Katarya is a bit of a hoarder when it comes to collecting keepers.  He could have, oh I don't know, two keepers on this list, and yet he still is looking for more.  Exhibit A? Trading away Luck for Matt Jones.  But meanwhile, he's got Randall Cobb, one of the best receivers on one of the best passing offenses.  He's already put in a Top 10 campaign in his career, and could put in a Top 5 campaign if everything breaks his way, hence the potential output rating of 9.  What really puts Cobb on this list, though, is his Acquisition Cost.  The guy has Cobb for another two years, and has Cobb for $11 this year.  That's some serious value for a guy with Cobb's track record and potential.  The reason he falls in these rankings, however, is the sole fact that Katarya is so flaky with his perception of his players that Cobb's value to Katarya is less than other players on this list.  Cobb is super solid, but the Katarya stereotype singlehandedly drops him in the rankings.

9. Tyler Eifert

Owner: Baron
Acquisition Cost: 5
Value to the Owner: 8
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 9
Total: 31

Eifert is beasting right now.  Best pickup Siems has had in an otherwise lost season.  He's currently the TE2 overall, and has put up two 20+ point performances.  Unfortunately, he's got a man named Gronk playing in front of him, so his Potential Output score drops to a 9 since he probably wouldn't finish as a TE1. As Baron put it to me "He's a Top 5 TE, but he's no Gronk".  Essentially, Eifert has hit his ceiling, but it could hold up for a while.  He may join the ranks of a Jimmy Graham in the I'm-really-good-but-not-good-enough-to-be-the-best category for TEs.  Another killer for Baron is the simple fact that he picked up Eifert, so his cost to keep will be roughly 3/4 of his ESPN value next year, taking out a lot of the savings.

8. Martavis Bryant

Owner: Bryan
Acquisition Cost: 8
Value to the Owner: 8
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 7
Total: 32

One game is all it took for Bryant to burst onto the scene.  And he did it with something called a Landry Jones.  This is a physical freak of nature playing on an elite passing offense (once Big Ben is healthy).  So yes, the current output number is generous due to the incredibly small sample size, but it was still a very healthy debut as it is.  Bryan also got Bryant for $8 in the draft this year, which could be a very, very good deal if he keeps blowing up.  The only problem for Bryant is the presence of Antonio Brown.  Sure, he could blow up for a couple of games, but once Big Ben gets back, he's going to be hellbent on restoring Antonio Brown to the top.  So there is some inversion.  I mean, if Bryant does well, the Acquisition Cost goes up, but if Brown does at the expense of Bryant, then Bryant's Acquisition Cost gets better.  Yet at that point, Bryan might not even be inclined to keep Bryant.  Still, if you look at the offensive potential, the cost Bryan actually paid for Bryant, and what he's done already in the league, this could be a very good keeper.  Just gotta laid off that kush though.

7. Devonta Freeman

Owner: Tim
Acquisition Cost: 5
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 9
Total: 33

Talk about the pickup of the year so far.  Give him credit, he made one heck of a pickup.  But don't give him too much.  Freeman was awful the first game of the year, and Tevin Coleman was supposed to start.  It just so happens that Coleman got hurt, Tim made the add, and the rest is history.  Coleman is the RB1 right now in fantasy land, hence the perfect output number, but I don't see him finishing as the RB1.  In fact, his score of 9 for Potential Output is solely dependent on this year as I could see him finishing Top 5, but then never reaching that plateau again.  Add in the fact that his Acquisition Cost is five since he is the other pickup on this list, and he falls down the ranking.  But Tim should just ride this wave for as long as he can.

On a side note, Tim drafted Melvin Gordon to be a potential keeper this year, and he still has Alshon under contract.  I'm excited to see what he does for his keeper.  And by excited I mean I'm jealous that he has four possible keepers.  Foreshadowing folks.  It's not just for professional writers.

6. Demaryius Thomas

Owner: Dan
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 7
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 10
Total: 33

Peyton man...Singlehandedly tearing apart the value of all the players on his team.  I mean, Baron had to be more excited about Emmanuel Sanders and CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman earlier in the year.  But not now.  And the Old Peyton Effect has taken it's toll on Thomas as well.  Dan would explain to me that before the draft he would have ranked Thomas at a 9, but now he's more of a 7.3 (leave it to Dan to provide exact decimals).  But Thomas' play has really suffered.  He's barely ahead of Rishard Matthews as the 20th ranked WR, and that's before his bye.  I mean, he's still capable of being the #1 overall receiver, but he needs a QB that can throw it downfield, and until the Broncos actually remove Peyton, he won't be seeing that.  Dan also gets a major boost in the Acquisition Cost category for his contract for Thomas, which still sees him paying Thomas $20 for one more year.

5. Amari Cooper

Owner: Joe
Acquisition Cost: 8
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 7
Potential Output: 10
Total: 35

There's actually a pretty big gap between Thomas' total points and the next three guys on the list, who all come in at 35 or 36 points.  The reason Cooper is the lowest of the three is less of a knock on him and more about the advantages the other two players give their owners.  Because, fact is, Cooper could finish a season as the #1 overall WR.  And with that kind of potential, and at the cost Joe got him for ($14), he's a highly valuable player to have.  Joe knows this.  I had a back and forth over why he would take Cooper over the #1 guy on this list, but he was adamant in the future of the Raiders offense, including the growth of Cooper and Carr together.  Cooper currently sits as the WR27, but that's with a bye included.  He should climb up the rankings.  But good luck trying to trade Joe for this guy.  You'd have to sell more than the kitchen sink.

4. Allen Robinson

Owner: Jose
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 9
Total: 36

Currently the WR5 in fantasy football, Robinson has become a red zone and deep threat monster for the Jaguars.  Yes, he plays for the Jaguars.  And yes, Blake Bortles is his QB.  But despite all that, he's still put up some serious numbers.  And he's doing it in his second year.  He'll have his bye in two weeks, so his ranking should fall, but the fact that he's done this in his second year speaks volume to his growth potential.  The big reason I have Robinson ahead of Cooper is for one reason, I spent $3 to draft him this year.  Robinson will be a great keeper deal going into next year if he keeps up this pace.  But with his physical profile and growth so far, he could easily finish a season in a top 5 WR.

3. Todd Gurley

Owner: Tim
Acquisition Cost: 7
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 9
Potential Output: 10
Total: 36

I thought I'd let more bias get in the way of this pick, but Gurley has to finish ahead of Robinson for the simple fact that he's a running back.  And that he was a Top 10 player.  And that he is considered the best RB prospect since AP (although the last time I heard that was from Baron describing Trent Richardson. So...).  But if you want an idea of how much Tim values the guy, I offered him Brandon Marshall, Aaron Rodgers, Jeremy Hill, and who knows else, and Tim shot the deal down QUICKLY.  He paid a lot (at the time) for Gurley with the expectation of keeping him, so he's already biased, and two 15 point games later and Tim is all about it.  This guy has the potential to finish as the #1 overall player in fantasy more than once in his career, so there's no denying the potential.  The only reason he falls is because Tim will have to pay a decent price for Gurely (still below market value) for the next few seasons.

2. Rob Gronkowski

Owner: Katarya
Acquisition Cost: 9
Value to the Owner: 9
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 10
Total: 38

There isn't much to say about Gronk other than Yo Soy Fiesta.  Well, that and he's the #1 TE in fantasy by far and he's under a very reasonable contract for Katarya.  Add in the fact that he could be the #1 TE any year he wanted to and this is almost the perfect keeper value.  Almost.  Again, Katarya being Katarya keeps Gronk out of the number one spot as, more than any owner outside of me, I can see him trading away Gronk.  So the Value goes to 9.  But simply put, there aren't many better situations than this.

1. DeAndre Hopkins

Owner: Sean
Acquisition Cost: 10
Value to the Owner: 10
Current Output: 10
Potential Output: 10
Total: 40

Now this is the perfect keeper.  You could make an argument for Cooper being better, Robinson having better value, Gronk just being the guy, and Gurley being the best at the thinnest position.  But let's counter your thoughts with some facts.  DeAndre Hopkins is the WR1 in fantasy, and he's 10 points ahead of #2.  That gap is bigger than the gap between the WR3 and WR8.  If you want to talk about dominance, there it is.  What's more impressive is he's doing this without a real QB.  I mean, Cooper and Robinson have futures with their QBs, but Hopkins should get a better one in the draft or as a free agent soon.  That gives him the potential for more overall WR1 output.  Sean also has Hopkins on a five year contract where he only paid $6 for him this year.  $6!  Again, another reason he blows the other competition out of the water.  So if you want to talk what the perfect keeper would look like, it's currently DeAndre Hopkins.  I'll let Sean sum it up: "Yea, no way I'm trading him away..."

Hey folks.

A quick message.  In case you didn't know or remember, Air Bear has been the vice-commissioner in this league since, basically, year one.  I've asked him to take on a larger role while I cut back my role as commissioner.  Here's what's changing:

- Any league rule or policy questions will now be funneled through Air Bear.  If you have any questions about a rule in our league, a change you may want, or a request when it concerns a rule in the league, he's your man.  You can email, facebook, text.  Whatever it is.  He will consult me or have issues forwarded to me depending upon his schedule (he can be out hiking or camping on any given weekend or he could be working overnights).  But, simply put, point man for league rules = Baron.  Backup = me.  This includes any discussion we may have regarding rule changes next year.

- I will still handle coordination of the draft, oversee the blog, handle any other scheduling as needed, answer general league questions for you as needed, and handle any other "administrative" work that may come up.

This is effective immediately.  I trust Air Bear to make good decisions if there's a qualm, and I admittedly appreciate his help in stepping up and taking control of this.

I figured now was as good a time as any to update the keeper rankings before we draft our teams on Sunday.  With a good read on not only player ranks, but the value relative to their rank, we can go ahead and update these.  Note that Bryan, Sean, and Joe haven't submitted their rankings yet.

As a reminder, the number in parenthesis represent the player value and the cost to keep them.  So if it reads (18/11), then the player value according to ESPN is $18, but he's being kept for $11.  Bolded players are already under contract, including the new ones that have been signed.  Diving right in:

10.  Bryan - TY Hilton (31/10), Sammy Watkins (10/15).  No change in rank

Since I last wrote this, Hilton's value has gone up $10 to $31.  That bodes well for Bryan as he's getting a perceived more valuable piece.  But, considering the state of his second keepers, he's still on the fringe.  I'll hold off on speaking too much until he figures out who his final keeper is, but right now it looks to be the toughest keeper situation in the league.

Hilton should produce really good numbers, especially since Luck is improving.  What worries me is his size relative to TD production.  A ton of Hilton's TDs come from long bombs, and now that he has competition in the speed department, that number could drop.  Andre Johnson could take red zone looks away, not to mention the TE combo of Fleener and Dwayne Allen.

Watkins was the biggest guess of any player in this list.  I really don't know where Bryan is going to go with this.  Keeping AJ Green presents zero value, and there really isn't anyone else.

9.  Danny - Mike Evans (28/19), Jonathan Stewart (18/13).  No change in rank

(Heads up, I went ahead and updated your Stewart keeper Danny.  Because his ESPN value went up to $18 from $17, his 2-year deal becomes $13 and $17, not $12 and $15.  Just giving you a heads up if you change it.)

I should've known better.  I expected Danny to keep Lamar Miller, but the fact that The (former) Daily Show is valued about four or five RBs behind Miller, and he's a Panther, means Danny would go ahead and pick him.  It was all a matter of cost vs performance, as he could have paid more for Miller, but probably didn't think he would bring as big a return as J Stew could.  Danny probably would have stayed in the 9 spot regardless of what he chose to do here.  Mainly because every other team above him has a better combination of potential and/or savings.  But there's one thing they don't have: Mike Evans.

Evans is really getting some hype.  He was valued at $19 at the time of the first edition of this segment, but with top notch WRs getting hurt, combined with his freak TD scoring potential, has vaulted Evans to the 9th overall WR according to ESPN (assuming Jordy is really out for the year).  And the scariest part is he could outperform that.  But it's all based on Jameis and that terrible, terrible O line.

8.  Jose - Jeremy Hill (38/26), Davante Adams (2/2).  Drop from 3 to 8

I'm really, really excited to do some drafting.  I have two drafts this week, one next week, and one the week after.  That's my official reasoning for writing part two of this little series.  But my real reason I'm writing it is to point out how fluffing lucky I am to have Davante Adams carry over from my roster, and having the values lock when they do.

Jordy Nelson had 151 targets last year.  Cobb had something like 127.  The TE spot had 75 between Quarless and Rodgers.  Let's say the TE goes up about ten targets as they lean on Rodgers a bit more and a little less on Quarless.  Let's say Cobb gets 151 targets.  That leaves 114 targets out there.  What if Adams gets those?

Last year he had 66 targets, 446 yards and 3 TDs.  Jordy had the aforementioned 151 targets, 1,519 yards and 13 TDs.  If GBs new 3rd receiver steals what Adams had last year, then the 1,519 yards and TDs need to go somewhere.  Even if we expect a TD regression without Jordy, it's not inconceivable that Adams could get 7-8 TDs.  After all, the man scored 24 his senior year of college, so he knows how to get into the end zone.  And what if Adams gets 1,000 yards?  That doesn't seem impossible.  I mean, he put up 124 or something against the Pats last year.  1,000 yards and 7 TDs is 142 fantasy points.  That's good for 16th according to ESPN's projections.  And because the keeper values locked when they did, Davante Adams costs only $2.  $2!  16th in projections is valued at $24.  $22 in savings! And what's crazy is that since he's on an Aaron Rodgers team, my predictions aren't all that crazy.  You could conceive a scenario where Adams scores 10 TDs for example, or catches 1,200 yards.  AND DID I MENTION I CAN KEEP HIM FOR FOR $2?!

Of course, because I traded Gronk, I did take a pretty significant fall in the keeper ranks.  But pure luck might have us looking back on this keeper as the best value of the draft.

7,  Baron - Jordan Matthews (18/13), CJ Anderson (47/35).  No change in rank.

Here's where I put aside my personal bias and try to slot Baron into a reasonable area in these rankings.  Reason being, I'm incredibly biased towards both Matthews and Anderson this year.  I've had multiple arguments with Ed about why I think CJ Anderson will finish a Top 3 back and has a real chance to be the #1 overall player this year.  I've also watched enough Jordan Matthews on TV and in highlights to think he's undervalued at the moment.  I think he has a real shot to finish a Top 10 WR.  Chip Kelly will look to him first and foremost, and that offense will give him plenty of opportunities to catch TDs.

But, it's not like there aren't question marks.  Rumors coming from Denver today think that Ronnie Hillman has played himself into a 1B to Anderson's 1A role this preseason.  I tend to disagree, but Anderson hasn't gotten as many reps as Hillman in games and Hillman is really taking advantage of the opportunity.

As for Matthews, I think he's more of a victim of the guys ahead of him in the rankings just being really good players too.  Plus, people don't know how to grasp Kelly's system for WRs just yet (considering how interchangeable Kelly views them).

But, Baron's team has the upside to match the best of them in our league.  I just wish the values were a bit better compared to the market.

6.  Sean - Odell Beckham (43/38), Emmanuel Sanders (27/14).  Drop from 5 to 6.

Sean's ODB price assumes he keeps him on a two year contract.  This is the first change I've written for another team as I think Sean doesn't keep DeAndre Hopkins but instead keeps Sanders.  There's two points to my logic:

1. While he could keep Hopkins for a savings around $10 and pay only $6 or so, the savings from Sanders are more, and he plays on a better offense.  Basically, he's getting the premier WR2 in fantasy (unless Adams steals that thunder :P) for $13 off his normal price.

2. Sean has a history of taking best player available, regardless of savings.  I gave him a hard time last year for keeping Manning when he was getting basically no savings on the deal, and he went ahead and had the highest scoring season in league history.  Well, I'm assuming it was the highest scoring season.  I'm not going to check that right now.

Sanders is a nice keeper, and ODB is the man, but he drops in ranking mainly because one guy in particular has seen a huge boom to his keepers.  But it's not like Sean doesn't have any building blocks.  His WR core to start the season rivals anyone's out there.

5.  Jeff - Adrian Peterson (56/40), Mark Ingram (29/21).  Rise from 6 to 5.

(Jeff, like I did with Danny, I updated your dollar values for your keepers on the draft spreadsheet.)

When you have the #1 overall preseason player on your team as a keeper with $14 savings, you're going to be in the top half of the keeper rankings.  But I think we're about to see an interesting convergence of fantasy football thought played out in AP's season.

In short, AP has hit the age and overall touches wall that leads to so many RBs falling off a cliff.  But at the same time, he has Norv Turner running an offense, who is putting him in the most primo position that any player could ask for.  I can't stress this enough, but Norv ran the ball the inside the 20 the most of any coach during his time in San Diego.  He's scheming up ways to get AP to catch the ball, and it's not unrealistic to think that AP could break his all time receptions record.  By sheer volume alone AP could kill it.  But between the 20s he may not be as successful as we think he could be.  But he is and will forever be better than Matt Asiata, so you should see some magic from him.  Still, it's worth watching.

Ingram should have himself a solid season.  He's slotted in drafts around Alshon and Alfred Morris.  That seems about right.  This would make him an RB2, and Jeff is paying that much for him.  So the value isn't the greatest compared to other players, but he's still setting himself up for one of the strongest RB cores in the game.  And boy do we know how much RB matters.

4.  Tim - DeMarco Murray (47/26), Alshon Jeffery (32/16).  No change in rank.

Tim has seen Murray's value go up from $38 to $47 since the first edition of these rankings.  That's resulted in only a $2 spike in the value of Murray (if he signes him to a two year deal).  That's still a really good deal for him.  Jeffery's value has gone up, but since he's under contract, he still only costs Tim $16.

I had a lot of back and forth thought about whether to put Jeff at the 4 spot.  I tend to side with the people that think AP's play could fall this year.  While I still think AP will score enough TDs, I think it brings him closer to Murray in terms of keeper value, and with the savings Tim has with Murray, he gets the nod here.  After all, Murray plays on a team with the fastest per play pace of anyone in the league, and the 5th highest running plays last year of any team.  So he'll get his.  Of course, we worry about a potential timeshare with Ryan Mathews, but in pure volume alone, Murray should provide great return for Tim for only $26.  And boy, does he need to save as much money as possible.

Jeffery isn't sexy at all.  No one want to talk about him, and they all think Cutler will kill his relative value.  But he still puts up points.  He's basically become the Alfred Morris of WRs.  You don't exactly want to draft him, but he'll put up points for you regardless.

3. Dan - Russell Wilson (23/10), Demaryius Thomas (45/18).  Drop from 2 to 3.

With Danny cutting Cam Newton this year, Dan has the final grandfathered contract still in effect from when we first made the transition to contracts.  That is, he made the contract day one when we could do contracts.  And of all the contracts in the league, this has given him the most value.  When he lucked into having Thomas under contract when Manning signed with the Colts, he got himself a top 5 WR for the cost of a top 30 WR.  He's been able to use that contract and all that saved money to put together very good lineups the last three years.  I don't exactly see that stopping any time soon.  It's the biggest reason Dan is third in the rankings.

So why the drop from second to third though?  Mainly because the second person on these rankings has had everything go right for him this offseason.  But Dan doesn't have any problems right now.  Russell Wilson is a top 3 QB that he's keeping for $10.  For reference, the third most expensive QB in last year's draft was $34.  So yea, good deal.  Really good deal.

2.  Arun - Rob Gronkowski (43/27), Randall Cobb (33/11).  Rise from 8 to 2.

I've understandably been given a lot of grief for making this trade with Katarya.  Mainly from Ed (who I know will read this) and Bryan.  But feel free everyone else to join in.  I haven't earned your respect yet.

Looking at it from Katarya's end though, it was about as good as it gets.  He had the extra draft dollars to work with, and now he gets the undisputed biggest advantage in the game as a keeper.  In my writeup about our trade, I pointed out that most sites had Gronk averaging four points per game more than the number two TE.  That's absurd.  Getting that advantage off the bat is huge.  Add in the fact that, according to his fantasy cycle, Katarya should be good this year, and he's off and running on the right foot.

But what makes Katarya's keepers all the better is that Cobb just became the number one in Green Bay.  Jordy was going for $40.  You'll probably see Cobb peak a bit higher than that because now people will think he'll hog a ton of the market share with that team, so in effect, Katarya is getting a guy who many peg as a lock to finish Top 10 in receiving for only $11.  If Katarya's keeper was a high end escort, Dan's Thomas keeper would be working the streets of North St. in Chicago (that was for you Tim!).  Keep your eyes on Katarya this year guys.  He may not be as Hairon Buttarya much longer.

But seriously Katarya, you need to change your logo to the one Joe made ASAP.

1. Joe - Le'Veon Bell (54/47), Eddie Lacy (55/35).  No change in rank.

The numbers two and three RBs, with a healthy discount with Lacy.  I'm giving Joe the number one spot because he has the numbers two and three RBs under contract.  That's obscene, even if the savings aren't as crazy as Katarya's.  Let me put it this way, the Top 2 scoring RBs last year averaged 5.1 points per game more than the third and fourth RBs.  That's assuming the third and fourth RBs are on the same team.  So the positional advantage he gets is, to use hyperbole, astounding.

There really isn't much more that needs to be said about these two.  They're just really fluffing good.

*        *         *         *         *         *

This is probably going to be the last writeup before the draft.  I can see myself doing a writeup to rank teams and assess people's drafts after Sunday, but ESPN does have a new power rankings option that I could try out too.  It also lets me assess drafts, so that's neat.

Everyone knows it by now.

The definition of insanity is attempting the same thing over and over expecting a different result.

Well then, I'm insane.  But at least I'm aware of it.  That's the first step in solving the problem.

Thing is though, I'm not all that interested in curing this case of insanity.  Yes, this definitely makes any potential playoff push all the harder to accomplish, but hey, I like the challenge.

Oh, I'm sorry.  Where are my manners?  You're probably wondering what the hell I'm talking about.  Short answer, I'm trading Gronk to Katarya.

Specifically, I'm trading Gronk to Katarya for $12 draft dollars, $5 free agent dollars (that's for you Danny), and Carlos Hyde.

I could go right ahead and explain why I'm doing this, and I'm sure you'll get a kick out of it.  Like I said before, I know this is a bit loopy.  The simple answer is that I have a huge man crush on Travis Kelce, and that my personal projections have him finishing much closer to the Gronk's stats than most pundits believe.  But even beyond that, I'll be keeping the guy I believe will finish as the #2 TE for the cost of a #7 or #8 TE.  And I'll be earning draft money in return.  So in keeping Kelce for $6 and trading Gronk for $12, I actually come away with $6 and a decent keeper.

As for Katarya?  Well with all the additional draft capital, he could afford to give away some money.  And even by trading the $12, he still realizes savings of $5 compared to Gronk's market price.  Plus, it's Gronk.  He es fiesta.

It's a win for him, and a win (in my mind) for me.

Insanity!

PS: This deal is contingent upon both players remaining healthy up until the draft.  If at any point either of them are hurt for a period of time Katarya or I deem unacceptable, then this trade is void.

August 30th.  4 pm CST.

August 30th.  4 pm CST.

August 30th.  4 pm CST.

I'm being overbearing because I want to hammer home the point that our draft is August 30th.  4 pm CST.  Of course, with our draft being August 30th, 4 pm CST, it's only natural that we want to know who were playing against.  After all, the first four weeks of the season are generally some of the most important.  Get off to a good start and you're well positioned before the bye weeks.  Get off to a bad start and you turn into Hairon Buttarya and trade away your team for the right to get money to pay off a stupid contract you signed a couple of years back.

(Side note.  Whenever Arun goes into full tank mode, he'll forever turn into his alter ego Hairon Buttarya.  At least for me.  That name is too good not to use in some context.  At least for me.)

Either way, I've finally put together this year's schedule.  I'll provide a breakdown, but only highlight the matchup I find most interesting for that week.  Enjoy.

Week 1:
Danny vs Jeff
Arun vs Tim
Jose vs Dan
Sean vs Bryan

Matchup of the week: Joe vs Siems

Joe used his "Champion's Right" to choose Siems as his week one opponent.  His reasoning?  "Because it's past dynasty vs future dynasty".  I don't necessarily agree with that as it's recognizing Baron as once having had a dynasty.  But alas, Joe has chosen this.  But this has the look of being one of the best opening weeks yet.  Arun vs Tim?  Sean vs Bryan?  Danny vs Jeff?  All those have their own storylines.  I'd like to say Jose vs Dan would be interesting, but other than #factisdanlost, there really isn't much to talk about.

Week 2:
Danny vs Arun
Joe vs Jose
Bryan vs Baron
Sean vs Tim

Matchup of the week: Dan vs Jeff

Why these two you may be asking?  Because if I had to redo my preseason keeper rankings, Jeff's keepers would vault up a bit thanks to the AP hype train that's gaining speed.  And I'm intrigued by Jeff's keepers, because if he has a good draft this year, he could take become a formidable opponent.  I think this game could be closer than people think.

Week 3:
Jose vs Arun
Danny vs Bryan
Dan vs Tim
Jeff vs Baron

Matchup of the week: Joe vs Sean

This is pretty simple.  Last year's regular season champion vs last year's end-of-season champion.  Not much more explanation needed

Week 4:
Danny vs Sean
Joe vs Arun
Bryan vs Tim
Dan vs Baron

Matchup of the week: Jose vs Jeff

This match will be the catalyst to the most epic playoff run you'll ever see.  The winner will be vaulted to heights never before seen, as they ride a majestic unicorn through the Straight of Gibraltar and punch three of the four horseman of the apocalypse in the face.  Children will sing songs about this match. About this season. For the winner will gallivant in a parade of glory.

Or, you know, we'll hope to make the playoffs.

Week 5:
Danny vs Joe
Sean vs Jose
Bryan vs Dan
Tim vs Jeff

Matchup of the week: Arun vs Baron

I deem this the matchup of week because it's the mother freakin' Bread Browl!  White bread Aaron takes on Wheat bread Arun in a battle that could actually have some meaning.  Katarya should conceivably have a much improved team while Baron goes forth with what he hopes is his new Ray Rice (sans the beatings) in CJ Anderson.

Week 6:
Danny vs Jose
Bryan vs Jeff
Tim vs Baron
Joe vs Dan

Matchup of the week: Sean vs Arun

Solely picking because of the historical bromance between the two.  Or maybe I'm dreaming that.  Don't care.

Week 7:
Joe vs Jeff
Sean vs Baron
Jose vs Bryan
Arun vs Dan

Matchup of the week: Danny vs Tim

I've always enjoyed Danny's and Tim's back and forth.  If only because the dynamic between the two is so giggly.  At least, if my memory serves me it is.  It's some vanilla insult (because, really, why do they want to insult a friend?) followed by laughter, then another comment, then more laugher.  I feel like this will be the most soul-rewarding loss for whoever ends up on the short end of this matchup.

Week 8:
Danny vs Sean
Joe vs Jose
Baron vs Tim
Jeff vs Dan

Matchup of the wee: Arun vs Bryan

I feel compelled to make this the matchup of the week for one reason.  And it's not rooted in any fact, or reason, or logic, or whatever.  At this point in the season I'm going out on a limb and predicting Arun is actually ahead of Bryan in the standings, making him the favorite for this game.  My only thought is Katarya usually goes through two awful years and then one amazing year.  And this year he's due to be amazing.  Meanwhile, like I said about Bryan's keepers, they're kind of meh this year, so he'll really, really need to draft well.

Week 9: 
Danny vs Joe
Sean vs Arun
Bryan vs Jeff
Jose vs Baron

Matchup of the week: Dan vs Tim

Want to know what a copout sounds like?  It's picking this matchup because I didn't think Tim had enough matchups of the week.  Here's what I know about both of these teams: cash-strapped Tim will have put together a mish-mosh of players while Dan will have Dez Bryant catching TDs for him all day.  That's roughly where I'm at with this.  Tim does have Demarco and Alshon, so that should be good for him, but who knows how healthy people will be Week 9.

Week 10:
Danny vs Jose
Joe vs Arun
Bryan vs Tim
Sean vs Jeff

Matchup of the week: Dan vs Baron

This is four of the league's seven championships matching up in the first week where byes can really affect a team.  Historically Dan's teams have been built under the "barbell" methodology (essentially, top and bottom heavy.  Not many middle tier players).  We don't know if he'll do the same this year and, if so, if it will affect this game.  But the point is, this game could be interesting.  And that, my friends, is how you write lazily.

Week 11:
Joe vs Sean
Danny vs Dan
Tim vs Jeff
Bryan vs Baron

Matchup of the week: Jose vs Arun

Arun and myself remind me of those borderline relegation squads of the English Premier League.  We fight and fight just to avoid being the last two teams.  Sure, occasionally we'll surprise (and by we I mean Arun) and come out in the top 6 or something, but otherwise, pretty much getting trounced.  Like I said earlier though, I think this will be a surprise season from Arun, and I'm only hoping that I can have this game mean something then.

Week 12:
Danny vs Arun
Sean vs Jose
Bryan vs Dan
Joe vs Tim

Matchup of the week: Jeff vs Baron

Okay, so at this point in the season it's like throwing darts at a chalkboard.  Yes, a chalkboard.  That's basically saying nothing I'm going to throw here sticks, and blah blah blah.  I only picked this matchup because I want it to mean something.  I'm rooting for Jeff solely because I want him to make the playoffs if it isn't me.  And I'm hoping that by picking him here, that will give him some sort of good karma that will have this game matter for him.  I can hope dammit.

Week 13:
Danny vs Baron
Sean vs Dan
Jose vs Tim
Arun vs Jeff

Matchup of the week: Joe vs Bryan

End the season on a rematch of the championship game.  I mean, who knows what people's records will be here, but there are some juicy matchups overall.  Jeff vs Arun in a cross-country Rochester battle.  I mean, it's LA vs NYC for goodness sake!  Danny vs Baron in another Rochester battle.  Jose vs Tim in a battle of mixed bloods.  And Sean vs Dan take each other on in what could be a battle for playoff seeding, not just entry.

August 30th.  4 pm CST.  And in case you're wondering where I got my inspiration for this subtle approach:

As I enjoy doing every year, I've gone ahead and updated our historical head-to-head decisions to see who's the most dominant over who, what matchups may have surprised us, and any other tidbits of information I can find.  It's this kind of stuff that you can do when you're as funemployed as I am.

Before I proceed any further, below is a non-formatted record of head to head play between everyone in the league, including KC and Ed:

Arun	W	L	T	Games Pd		Baron	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun				0		Arun	4	4		8
Baron	4	4		8		Baron				0
Bryan	5	5		10		Bryan	3	3		6
Dan	3	4		7		Dan	5	6		11
Danny	5	4		9		Danny	5	5	1	11
Ed	3	1		4		Ed	5	1		6
Jeff	4	5		9		Jeff	4	5		9
Jose	5	5		10		Jose	7	1		8
Sean	2	6		8		Sean	1	4		5
Tim	4	6		10		Tim	6	2		8
Joe	0	2		2		Joe	0	4		4
KC	2	0		2		KC	1	0		1
Bryan	W	L	T	Games Pd		Dan	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	5	5		10		Arun	4	3		7
Baron	3	3		6		Baron	6	5		11
Bryan				0		Bryan	2	5		7
Dan	5	2		7		Dan				0
Danny	6	1		7		Danny	6	4	1	11
Ed	3	3		6		Ed	2	5		7
Jeff	4	4		8		Jeff	4	3	1	8
Jose	7	3		10		Jose	6	1		7
Sean	6	4		10		Sean	4	2		6
Tim	7	3		10		Tim	4	5		9
Joe	1	1		2		Joe	2	2		4
KC	2	0		2		KC	1	0		1
Danny	W	L	T	Games Pd		Ed	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	4	5		9		Arun	1	3		4
Baron	5	5	1	11		Baron	1	5		6
Bryan	1	6		7		Bryan	3	3		6
Dan	4	6		10		Dan	5	2		7
Danny				0		Danny	1	4		5
Ed	4	1		5		Ed				0
Jeff	7	2		9		Jeff	4	2		6
Jose	4	3		7		Jose	3	2	1	6
Sean	0	6		6		Sean	1	5		6
Tim	3	6		9		Tim	1	5		6
Joe	2	2		4		Joe	0	0		0
KC	1	0		1		KC	0	0		0
Jeff	W	L	T	Games Pd		Jose	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	5	4		9		Arun	5	5		10
Baron	5	4		9		Baron	1	7		8
Bryan	4	4		8		Bryan	3	7		10
Dan	3	4	1	8		Dan	1	6		7
Danny	2	7		9		Danny	3	4		7
Ed	2	4		6		Ed	2	3	1	6
Jeff				0		Jeff	7	3		10
Jose	3	7		10		Jose				0
Sean	2	5		7		Sean	2	6		8
Tim	4	3		7		Tim	3	2	3	8
Joe	2	1		3		Joe	0	1	1	2
KC	0	1		1		KC	1	1		2
Sean	W	L	T	Games Pd		Tim	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	6	2		8		Arun	6	4		10
Baron	4	1		5		Baron	2	6		8
Bryan	4	6		10		Bryan	3	7		10
Dan	2	4		6		Dan	5	4		9
Danny	6	0		6		Danny	6	3		9
Ed	5	1		6		Ed	5	1		6
Jeff	5	2		7		Jeff	3	4		7
Jose	6	2		8		Jose	2	3	1	6
Sean				0		Sean	4	4		8
Tim	4	4		8		Tim				0
Joe	1	0		1		Joe	2	0		2
KC	0	0		0		KC	1	1		2
Joe	W	L	T	Games Pd		KC	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	2	0		2		Arun	0	2		2
Baron	4	0		4		Baron	0	1		1
Bryan	1	1		2		Bryan	0	2		2
Dan	2	2		4		Dan	0	1		1
Danny	2	2		4		Danny	0	1		1
Ed	0	0		0		Ed	0	0		0
Jeff	1	2		3		Jeff	1	0		1
Jose	1	0	1	1.5		Jose	1	1		2
Sean	0	1		1		Sean	0	0		0
Tim	0	2		2		Tim	1	1		2
Joe				0		Joe	1	0		1
KC	0	1		1		KC				0