Hey friends!  Remember this blog?  I sure do.  

Posts on here are fewer and further between than they ever have been, and that shouldn't be a surprise.  We've got the GroupMe now to keep us entertained, and I've given up any pursuit of rule changes, so it's a happy medium.  But that doesn't mean I won't use this blog every once in a blue moon to do a post about whatever's tickling my fancy at the moment.  And luckily for you, I have two subjects tickling my fancy at the same time!

As I enjoy doing every year, I've gone ahead and updated our historical head-to-head decisions to see who's the most dominant over who, what matchups may have surprised us, and any other tidbits of information I can find.  It's this kind of stuff that you can do when you're as funemployed as I am.

Before I proceed any further, below is a non-formatted record of head to head play between everyone in the league, including KC and Ed:

Arun	W	L	T	Games Pd		Baron	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun				0		Arun	4	4		8
Baron	4	4		8		Baron				0
Bryan	5	5		10		Bryan	3	3		6
Dan	3	4		7		Dan	5	6		11
Danny	5	4		9		Danny	5	5	1	11
Ed	3	1		4		Ed	5	1		6
Jeff	4	5		9		Jeff	4	5		9
Jose	5	5		10		Jose	7	1		8
Sean	2	6		8		Sean	1	4		5
Tim	4	6		10		Tim	6	2		8
Joe	0	2		2		Joe	0	4		4
KC	2	0		2		KC	1	0		1
Bryan	W	L	T	Games Pd		Dan	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	5	5		10		Arun	4	3		7
Baron	3	3		6		Baron	6	5		11
Bryan				0		Bryan	2	5		7
Dan	5	2		7		Dan				0
Danny	6	1		7		Danny	6	4	1	11
Ed	3	3		6		Ed	2	5		7
Jeff	4	4		8		Jeff	4	3	1	8
Jose	7	3		10		Jose	6	1		7
Sean	6	4		10		Sean	4	2		6
Tim	7	3		10		Tim	4	5		9
Joe	1	1		2		Joe	2	2		4
KC	2	0		2		KC	1	0		1
Danny	W	L	T	Games Pd		Ed	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	4	5		9		Arun	1	3		4
Baron	5	5	1	11		Baron	1	5		6
Bryan	1	6		7		Bryan	3	3		6
Dan	4	6		10		Dan	5	2		7
Danny				0		Danny	1	4		5
Ed	4	1		5		Ed				0
Jeff	7	2		9		Jeff	4	2		6
Jose	4	3		7		Jose	3	2	1	6
Sean	0	6		6		Sean	1	5		6
Tim	3	6		9		Tim	1	5		6
Joe	2	2		4		Joe	0	0		0
KC	1	0		1		KC	0	0		0
Jeff	W	L	T	Games Pd		Jose	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	5	4		9		Arun	5	5		10
Baron	5	4		9		Baron	1	7		8
Bryan	4	4		8		Bryan	3	7		10
Dan	3	4	1	8		Dan	1	6		7
Danny	2	7		9		Danny	3	4		7
Ed	2	4		6		Ed	2	3	1	6
Jeff				0		Jeff	7	3		10
Jose	3	7		10		Jose				0
Sean	2	5		7		Sean	2	6		8
Tim	4	3		7		Tim	3	2	3	8
Joe	2	1		3		Joe	0	1	1	2
KC	0	1		1		KC	1	1		2
Sean	W	L	T	Games Pd		Tim	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	6	2		8		Arun	6	4		10
Baron	4	1		5		Baron	2	6		8
Bryan	4	6		10		Bryan	3	7		10
Dan	2	4		6		Dan	5	4		9
Danny	6	0		6		Danny	6	3		9
Ed	5	1		6		Ed	5	1		6
Jeff	5	2		7		Jeff	3	4		7
Jose	6	2		8		Jose	2	3	1	6
Sean				0		Sean	4	4		8
Tim	4	4		8		Tim				0
Joe	1	0		1		Joe	2	0		2
KC	0	0		0		KC	1	1		2
Joe	W	L	T	Games Pd		KC	W	L	T	Games Pd
Arun	2	0		2		Arun	0	2		2
Baron	4	0		4		Baron	0	1		1
Bryan	1	1		2		Bryan	0	2		2
Dan	2	2		4		Dan	0	1		1
Danny	2	2		4		Danny	0	1		1
Ed	0	0		0		Ed	0	0		0
Jeff	1	2		3		Jeff	1	0		1
Jose	1	0	1	1.5		Jose	1	1		2
Sean	0	1		1		Sean	0	0		0
Tim	0	2		2		Tim	1	1		2
Joe				0		Joe	1	0		1
KC	0	1		1		KC				0

PYT Burger.  Just to complete the Justice reference for Air Bear.

Hey guys!

Been a while hasn't it?

We're five weeks into the season and the most active person in the league has been...Tim?  Go look at all the stuff he's posted on the league page and give the man kudos for keeping the beat of our leagues heart still going (Note: That last sentence had a Hillary Duff reference in it.  A very sad, annoying Hillary Duff reference).

Also, after five weeks into the season, we haven't had a writeup by votre sinceremente.  That changes today.

As I've stressed above, we're five weeks into the season.  It's about at this point where we can start looking at the numbers and have actual, meaningful takeaways.  And I'm always a sucker for habitual self-deprecation in the form of numbers, so as I usually do at this time of year, I'll be summarizing our league's scoring through the first five weeks.  This does not include Thursday night's TY-splosion, Foster-athon, or Luck-fest.



QB
1. Sean - 126 points
2. Dan - 122
3. Tim - 92
4. Bryan - 86
5. Jeff - 84
6. Joe -80
7. Danny - 69
T8. - Jose - 58
T8. - Baron - 58
10. Arun - 57

Takeaways:

- It's Peyton, Luck, and everyone else
- Sean really got a good fill in with Eli when Peyton was on his bye.
- Bryan's effectively played his two-headed Kaepernick/Foles situation
- Some big names that haven't performed the way we'd hope: Brees for Jeff, Stafford for Jose, Cam for Danny
- My situation is understandable given I started Geno Smith twice.  Baron's is understandable given he starts Tony Romo (on the league's run-heaviest team mind you)
- Poor Katarya and his Tim Brady situation

RB
1. Tim - 128
T2. Joe - 114
T2. Sean - 114
4. Dan - 101
5. Baron - 91
6. Bryan - 87
7. Jose - 81
8. Jeff - 74
9. Arun - 71
10. Danny - 65

Takeaways:
- With all the injuries that have happened this year, there have only been a few consistent performers.  For example, if you have Demarco Murray, you should damn well lead the league in RB points (it's at this point Jose face palms after trading him last year)
- Want to know a big reason why Baron is struggling?  His three biggest investments were at the RB position, and while Gio has turned out just dandy for him, Monte and Forte haven't given him enough return to this point to get him above 5th in scoring.
- I've told Sean this directly, but there really is nowhere to go but down.  How many of you here think Arian Foster will stay healthy the rest of the year?  That's what I thought.  And Ahmad Bradshaw?  Or how about Bradshaw's unsustainable TD rate?  Don't get me wrong, Sean does have T-Rich in the event of an injury, but he still probably won't be able to hold as much value as Bradshaw is right now.  But I don't think his fall would be very hard once we detail the WR section.
- I look at Danny's team and I see a team that was reliant on a lot of last year's magic to carry into this year.  Matthews, Stacy, Deangelo, Woodhead...It's a veritable list of 2013 performers who, for one reason or another, haven't delivered this year.  To Danny's credit, despite his history as one of the league's least reactive teams, he did pick up Forsett, but that's looking like a three-headed monster situation right now.

WR (this is just the two players you played at your WR spot any given week, not WRs played in the flex)
1. Sean -  154
2. Dan - 122
3. Danny - 107
4. Joe - 98
5. Arun - 93
6. Bryan - 91
7. Tim - 78
8. Baron - 61
9. Jose - 56
10. Jeff - 51

Takeaways:
- Jeff has built up a reputation as a guy who sure does love his WRs.  And based on his WR count after the draft, you could say that assumption still held true.  But some circumstances were different this year.  For one, Jeff's biggest investments were in the TE and QB position, and he's gotten incredibly inconsistent performances from the rest of his team.  Kinda like what Ken had last year.
- Remember that floor I spoke about with Sean?  This is why he still should perform.  For as much as we think his RBs should stumble, he still has Antonio Brown and Jordy and his top WRs.  You tell me if you see a problem with those two.
- The scariest part about Dan's scoring is that D. Thomas has only had one really good game.
- A couple of crazy Julio games have skewed Joe upwards, but he's gotten strong contributions out of Golden Tate, especially during Megatron's injury spell.
- I'm not going to lie, I definitely thought I would've outscored Baron's team, at least, when I started doing this.
- The league leaders all have studs at WR. Except Danny.  What's impressive about his situation is, despite playing Megatron the Decoy the past couple of weeks, Kelvin Benjamin has turned into a huge TD threat (much to Danny's delight), and the Steve Smith Revenge Tour is going strong.  While I don't think this holds for Senior, Gary Kubiak led offenses have typically only featured one receiver, and if Smith is the man, then he could post big games.

TE
1. Joe - 68
2. Danny - 55
3. Sean - 53
4. Jeff - 51
5. Jose - 47
6. Tim - 44
7. Bryan - 42
8. Baron - 35
9. Dan - 21
10. Arun - 19

Takeaways:
- Boy, that Julius Thomas sure does look like a good player huh Joe?
- Who knew that Greg Olsen would kill it for Danny?  I don't even think Danny's played another guy.  It might be 55 points of just Greg Olsen.
- Seriously, Sean is Top 3 in all skill positions to date.  A lot of it is Martellus Bennett, and it remains to be seen if he keeps it up once Jeffery and Marshall are fully healthy.
- Last year Vernon Davis had one of the most unsustainable TD rates in NFL history (it was something like 1 TD every 4 catches, and half of them were coming from over 20 yards out).  So Katarya picks him, he has a first good game, he gets hurt, and Katarya KEEPS PLAYING HIM.  Now he's been forced to play Eric Ebron, which pretty much sums up his TE situation to date.
- Trend time! While being 5th in TE scoring, yours truly is 1st in the last three weeks.  Gronk this Gronk that Gronk this Gronk that.
- Two monster games from Antonio Gates have propped Bryan up to 7th in TE scoring, but I think he has the highest variance amongst all owners.  It's truly boom or bust.

Flex
1. Dan - 67
2. Baron - 52
3. Jose - 50
T4. Sean - 48
T4. Arun - 48
6. Joe - 40
7. Tim - 36
8. Jeff - 31
9. Danny - 29
10. Bryan - 28

Takeaways:
- The flex is the most deceiving position to snapshot because, for example, Sean could throw Jordy there for the heck of it and skew is WR and Flex numbers in an instant.  But it's fun to hypothesize why a lot of the lowest scoring teams lead the flex position?  Is it because they do the aforementioned strategy?  Or are they deep across the board in B to C level players.  I tend to believe the latter.  While players like Dan go big on superstars early and backfill on cheaper players in the flex spot (although I think Ellington played there last week for Dan), the guys who don't get the biggest stars fill in with a bunch of mid-level players that they fill into their flex spots.
- There is honestly nothing else I can take away from this.

K
1. Bryan - 57
2. Arun - 51
3. Jose - 48
T4. Joe - 44
T4. Danny - 44
6. Baron - 36
7. Tim - 34
8. Jeff - 33
9. Sean - 30
10. Dan - 29

I only bring up kickers because Stephen F***ing Gostkowski scored 21 points against me.  Had this been two weeks ago I'm pretty sure Bryan would be in sixth or something.

D/ST
1. Arun - 70
2. Sean - 52
3. Tim - 46
T4. Joe - 30
T4. Baron - 30
6. Bryan - 27
7. Dan - 22
8. Danny - 21
9. Jeff - 15
10. Jose - 0

Two things:
1. Just what we need, Sean's team to be good at another thing.
2. I've scored zero points total this year at the D/ST position.  Holy crap.

Now, even though these numbers look at the season from a wholistic standpoint, there are some differences between looking at all five weeks and looking at even just the last three weeks.  I'm not going to repost everyone's rankings in the past three weeks, but here's the major differences I've noticed if you remove the first two games of the year:

- Greg Olsen is the top TE in the league.  Let that sink in for a second.
- Jeff's team has taken a slide. He's 10th in the "random" positions: K and D/ST.  He's also 10th in WR scoring.
- Katarya has ZERO points out of the TE spot.
- Sean's team has not gotten any better, but not any worse.
- Guess who's trending upwards?  Despite low scoring, I'm tied with Danny for the top TE spot.  Gronk this Gronk that Gronk this Gronk that.
- Danny's defense has scored negative points in the last three weeks on defense.  Jeff, even more negative.
- Don't look now, but Tim and Joe are third and fourth in scoring the last three weeks.

So here's what I'm seeing.

1. The creme de la creme is Sean, and Dan's not far behind.  Sean should fall down a bit, and I have no idea how deep Dan's team really is once these bye weeks truly settle themselves.
2. Tim, despite losing AP, has a darn good team so long as Murray carries everything.
3. Joe and Bryan are contenders.
4. I'd venture that Danny, myself, Baron, Arun, and Jeff are all in that "others" category.  One of us could make a run, but the odds are against us.  That being said, it's been a weird year (I'm 3-2 after all), so surprises could happen.

Since it's 8 am and I need to get ready, for the day, I'm going to cut this post off now.

I've told you guys that I've spent hours upon hours working on developing some kind of statistical breakdown of players and their potential for this season.  What can I say, I want to win.  And I want to win by any (legal) means necessary.  If that means using my limited free time - and yes, it is limited - to work on a spreadsheet over the course of three months that helps me discover things about our league, then so be it.

But at the same time, I'm not good at hiding information for myself, so in the spirit of giving (and the lull of the off-season), I'm here to share some of what I discovered with you.  I'm not going to share the really juicy stuff I learned because I actually do want to have some information you don't, but I will share one thing I learned about every position I analyzed:  RB, WR, QB, and TE.

You know, because I care.

There's a pretty large caveat to all this info, and it's enough of a reason for you to disregard everything I'm telling you:  this info only uses the last two years of league stats.  I specifically chose the last two years because they've been our only auction years.  And what happened during those two years is actually quite different.  In 2012 players remained generally healthy, and 2013 had injuries everywhere.  It defnitely affected some things, but not enough to be able to deduce the following

1. RB Still Matters

Let me tell you the biggest shocker you'll hear all off-season:  Having an elite RB is good.

"Woop-de-freaking-do John.  Tell me something I don't know."

Um...I can't.  You know this already.

Here's the thing - what I learned was that, specifically, having a Top 6 RB mattered.  On average, the top 6 RBs outscored or matched the #1 WR in fantasy football.  What's more, the gap between the Top 2 (not 3) RBs, is even more pronounced.

Now, you may be asking yourself, if that's the case, what is it you need to do?  Get ready to be bludgeoned over the head by the truth here:

You need to pay for a top RB.

I'm always willing to help point it out for you.  24/7.

What my data found was that, of the Top 5 RBs drafted (in terms of money spent), 3 of them will finish in the Top 5.  And the fourth is usually drafted in the Top 10.

This makes sense because the top guys are getting drafted because they're, you know, good, and they have offenses that feature them because they're, you know, good.

So to put the odds in your favor, you want to pay for an AP, McCoy, or Charles.  Duh.

2. We're Really Good at Drafting WRs

A lot of what we do over the course of the season is trying to find that diamond in the rough pickup to help our team really jump past others.  Last year there was Zac Stacy and Julius Thomas.  The year before there was Alfred Morris.

But good luck trying to pickup a WR that will consistently help your team.  I mean, you'll be able to find a Marlon Brown or Laurent Robinson off the waiver wire after he blows up for a week, but to find a guy who's a threat every week is rare.  Oh, Keenan Allen last year you say?  Funny story, Baron actually drafted him.

"You know, drop him.  Because my team sucked last year." - Erin Seems

And that's kind of the point.  If every real life team has two legitimate WRs (and some 3), we should have something like 60-65 WRs who consistently can get some play.  What we've gotten to be really good at, essentially, is drafting all the WRs to finish in the Top 30.  That's three WRs per person, or enough to fill a flex spot for everyone.

Of the 30 most expensive WRs we've drafted, 65% of them have finished as Top 30 WRs.  That is the highest percentage of Top 30 picks of any position we draft from.  And once you factor in the the 31-60 WRs we draft, we're even more accurate (that is to say, if we draft 60 WRs, then how many of them finish in the Top 60).  So yea, we kind of pull all the meat off the bone with this position.

3. TEs Are a Crapshoot...Unless You have Jimmy Graham or a Healthy Gronk

Here's more super obvious stuff:  Jimmy Graham is a monster.  And so is the Gronk, when he's healthy.  And to a lesser degree, Julius Thomas.  But after that, good luck.  The deviation from TE4 through TE10 is the smallest deviation of any position that I researched.  That doesn't mean you can't have good weeks.  Just go ahead and ask Bryan about last year's TE4: Jason Witten.  That dude blew up some weeks.  But otherwise, everything kind of smooths itself out.

What's more, for as good as we are at drafting WRs, we're just as bad drafting TEs.  On average, we'll draft somewhere between 13-16 TEs in the draft.  Of those TEs drafted in the Top 10, only 45% will actually finish in the Top 10.  And once you take out Graham, that number only jumps up to 47.5%.

So why are we only able to hit on half our guesses in the Top 10?  Well, for one, because there seem to be more breakout TEs now than ever.  As these new uber athletic, basketball playing TEs enter the league, teams will try to use their athleticism to beat up on defenses.  It's just the trend of the league.

Which, of course, leads me to pure speculation.  I honestly think we'll get better at drafting TEs because more people will be talking about the Julius Thomas' of the world earlier and earlier.  And we'll identify and draft that kind of player going forward.

But as of right now, the kings of the gridiron are a Ginger and a Human Fiesta.  Yes, those titles are treated as proper nouns.


4. Forget What They Say, QBs Matter

There's been all this talk about how this is a passing league, and how there are so many QBs capable of putting up huge numbers, that all you need to do is wait on a QB and spend on other positions.  Let me counter with the following:

2012:  Dan wins the league with Aaron Rodgers, fantasy's #2 QB that year.  He defeats Danny, who has fantasy's #4 QB in Cam Newton

2013: Bryan wins the league with Andy Dalton and Matt Stafford (#5 and #7).  And Dan rides Josh McCown and his 22 point average into the playoffs.

Fact is, you could make an argument that having a Top QB is incredibly important.  After all, the elite QBs score more points than any other position.  We can talk all we want about finding "value" with QBs, but due to the high level of consistency in drafting the Top QBs (only 14.5% of QBs drafted in the Top 5 finished outside of the Top 5 (thank you Brees, Manning, and Rodgers)), this is a classic example of you "you know what you're getting".  And you know that, with the elite players, you're getting more points than any other position.  I mean, if Drew Brees scores 30 points, that could be enough to outscore an entire WR corp.  I'm not even looking at what the other guy's QB did.

So while this bulletpoint has less to do with the actual data I discovered, it's still relevant to our league.  Our top players (and this can continue to Baron when he picked up Kaepernick before the playoffs three years ago) usually wind up with some of the top QBs.

*       *       *       *       *       *       *       *       *       *

Those are just four fun little nuggets I "discovered" while doing this exercise.  Doing this is kind of like an exercise in psychology:  It becomes a painful elaboration of the obvious.  And that's why I'm willing to share.  Because none of this should be all that new to you.  So it shouldn't affect your strategy.  But if it does, stop right now.  Remember who's giving you this informaton.  After all, there's a reason I've never made the playoffs.

Doing this exercise might help explain why.