Real Men Cry Football: November 2014

2014

Deadline Tradezzzz

, by Bear

2014

Let's Keep the Playoff Talk Going

In this edition of John's Overanalyzation of Playoff Scenarios discussion - or, more like just me talking - I'll be breaking down everyone's playoff chances with three weeks left in order from most likely to least likely. It's not all that scientific and I'm probably going to miss a lot since there are still a lot of moving parts, but here it is what I know right now.

Sean - IN. Congratulations Sean! You should really rest up Foster if you want him ready for the playoffs. Just sayin'

Dan - Essentially in. Dan will make the playoffs definitively if he wins and one of Joe or Baron loses. The only way he doesn't make it is if he loses out and both Joe and Baron win out. And I say that only because he's outscored everyone so much that, at this point in the season, they can't really catch up to him in points scored. So they'll have to beat him in outright record, not in points scored.

Bryan - Not as guaranteed as Dan. Bryan's team has only scored 38 more points than Joe, and 53 more than Tim, who he plays this week. He still has the same circumstances as Dan in that he makes the playoffs if he wins and one of Joe and Baron lose. But, essentially, a win would all but clinch it for him since he does play Arun next week. I'll elaborate more on Bryan's situation in Tim's section.

Joe - He'll be in if he wins out. That is unless Baron outscores him by 107 points in three weeks. He's got a very nice matchup against Danny this week, but then gets Dan, followed by a season ending matchup against Blake Sims. Odds are definitely on Joe's side as his remaining schedule has a combined .467 winning percentage. If he wins two of three, and Baron loses even one, then he should be in the playoffs. Of course, there's the matter of what happens with Tim, Jeff, and myself. But two of three would give him a huge leg up, especially since he's outscored everyone ranked 4-8.

Baron - If Baron makes the playoffs, it would definitely be an impressive feat. He has the hardest schedule to end the season as he plays Sean this week, a rising Jeff team next week, and ends the season against Dan. He does get a Foster-less Sean team this week (and Siems picked up Foster's backup mind you), so the odds are better. But he needs to win more games than Joe the final three weeks, or have Bryan/Dan lose out. They're plausible in theory, but less so if you think about the odds of it happening. In short, he doesn't control his destiny, and needs Joe to fall a bit.

Tim - Tim is only 15 points - and one game - behind Joe. At the same time, he's only 53 points behind Bryan. And like I said, he plays Bryan this week. If he wins, he'll be one game back of Bryan, and either one game back or tied with Joe/Baron. On top of that, if he outscores Joe by enough, he would be the biggest contender to fight for that last playoff spot. A loss, of course, combined with a Joe/Baron win, would almost completely eliminate him. But if he wins this week, his end of season schedule includes Danny and Arun. So Tim could run the table if he wins out. And that would put a lot of pressure on the teams ahead of him. Because if Bryan loses to Tim this week, he'll only be one game up and fewer than 53 points ahead of him. And Joe would essentially be tied in points scored. And Baron will almost 100 points behind him. That's why I'm saying Tim and Bryan's game is the game of the week. Because if Tim wins, he'll throw the single biggest wrench into the playoff scenario situation.

Jeff - Has anyone noticed Jeff's winning streak? He's won his past three riding the legs of the Saints big three of Brees, Graham, and - wait for it - Mark Ingram. And he just traded for Brandon Marshall. It's not inconceivable that Jeff makes the playoffs, although he has to play Dan this week. Let's just say Jeff wins. He'll be, at the very least, one game back of Joe/Baron (or tied depending upon outcome), with Baron and Danny left on the season. What he really needs to stay alive is a Tim loss AND a win, so it's an absolute uphill battle this week. But if that happens, he'll play Baron next week in what will be an elimination game between the two. And then he ends the season against Dan. So, while odds are against him, they aren't impossible.

Jose - Being the lowest scoring team amongst the playoff contenders leaves the odds of making the playoffs the closest to impossible for me. In short, I have to win out and need help. With games on the horizon against Sean and Joe, those odds aren't looking so great. The thing I have going for me is a matchup against Katarya this week, and so unfavorable matchups for other teams trying to make the playoffs. For me to have a chance, I need one of Joe or Baron to lose, as well as Tim and Jeff to lose one of their remaining three games. But if that scenario happens this week, I'll be tied for the final playoff spot (based on record), and have a head to head against Joe. So if all plays out this week as it should, I'll still be in it. But if I lose and one of Joe or Baron wins, then I'm done.

Danny and Arun - Next year homies.

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, by Unknown

2014

More Trade Quick Comments

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, by Unknown

2014

Quick Trade Recap

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, by Unknown

2014

Winter Is Coming. So Are Playoffs

It's a simple formula:

John's record + Lateness of season = more content.

And I know I've been filling you all with content even if it means sacrificing some sleep or work that I should be getting done. But I can't help myself. This is the latest my team has had a chance in a season since the 2009-2010 season when I was in position the final two games of the season. If you'll recall - and you won't - I had to win one of my last two or have Siems lose one of his last two. And of course, since I've never made the playoffs...

But that's not now. That's not today! No, today's content will show you scoring based upon position for each team over the course of the season and the last three weeks (like I did last month), but I'll add in the nice little bonus of a check on people's remaining schedules.

Without any more delay, below are the scoring totals for the season and the last three weeks, respectively, by position.

Season Long Scoring

Three Week Scoring

I don't need to dive too much into these other than to explain the following:

- Sean, Bryan, and Dan still own everyone else

- Katarya, despite his firesale, is still 7th in overall scoring, but 9th in the past three weeks. The guy behind him, Danny, has now fallen all the way to the bottom in overall scoring.

- Baron is cementing his team's status as the 4th best team with his scoring the past three (actually, four) weeks.

- The big surprise is Jeff. He's 5th in scoring the last three weeks, thanks in large part to his RB resurgence. Vereen, Ivory, and Mark Ingram have really helped catapult his scoring totals.

But there's more to the rest of the season other than scoring potential. Let's take a gander at team strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is based upon scoring totals, not record.

Like the above, I'll provide a team's remaining SOS based upon season scoring and three week scoring. Scores in red represent the three highest scoring (and therefore difficult) teams, while green is the opposite. Final rank of schedule is to the far right.

Season Scoring SOS

Three Week Scoring SOS

I'm only going to focus on analyzing the bottom table as enough teams have turned over to make using season totals less accurate than recent data.

So here's the basics:

- Dan has the easiest schedule going forward. He gets Danny, and then doesn't have to worry about facing Bryan or Sean. His toughest matchup will be Baron, who's team could be hot at that time.

- Of course Arun has the hardest schedule. He still gets Sean and Bryan this season.

- It surprises me a bit, but Sean and Bryan have two of the top four most difficult schedules remaining. They play each other in the final week in what could be a game for the #1 overall seed.

- Baron is facing an interesting rest of his season. His team has scored the fourth most points, but faces the second hardest schedule remaining. He still has to play Sean and Dan, plus he gets to play potential spoiler in Jeff the weeks between them. Let's not forget that he's also playing Joe in what is definitely the game of the week this week.

- With two wins in the last two weeks, Jeff is actually back into the playoff conversation. But he has to play Bryan and Dan two weeks in a row. If I'm him, I'd stay in New Zealand. That seems to be working for him right now.

- So let's take a look at the remaining teams fighting for the last playoff spot. In case you were wondering why I say last spot, that's mainly because Sean is one win away from clinching; Bryan clinches with a win and Baron loss; and I'm assuming Dan runs the table here on out. Here's what we're seeing:

Baron - SOS: 2. Remaining schedule: Joe, Sean, Jeff, Dan. Projected final record: 7-6 (2-2 in 4 week span).
Joe - SOS: 9. Remaining schedule: Baron, Danny, Dan, Jose. Projected final record: 6-7 (2-2 in 4 week span).
Jose - SOS: 6. Remaining schedule: Tim, Arun, Sean, Joe. Projected final record: 6-7 (2-2 in 4 week span).
Tim - SOS: 8. Remaining schedule: Jose, Bryan, Danny, Arun. Projected final record: 5-8 (2-2 in 4 week span).
Jeff - SOS: 5. Remaining schedule: Bryan, Dan, Baron, Danny. Projected final record: 4-9 (1-3 in 4 week span).
Danny - SOS: 7. Remaining schedule: Dan, Joe, Tim, Jeff. Projected final record: 3-10 (0-4 in 4 week span)

These numbers purely look at scoring over the last three weeks. So let's dive just a wee bit deeper.

The winner of the Joe/Baron matchup will have a big leg up on the other opponent going into the rest of the season. Joe winning means he has the same record and scoring advantage with two very winnable games ahead of him. Meanwhile, Baron would be forced to play Sean and Dan to end the season, making a vault over Joe all the more difficult. But if Baron wins, he goes two games up on Joe. That pretty much forces Joe to win out, and Baron would need to lose both of his tough games.
I basically need to beat Tim this week. A win, regardless of what happens in the Joe and Baron game, would keep me in contention to make the playoffs. Because if Joe wins and I win, I should go 1-1 (just like Joe) before we play each other to end the season. If Baron wins, I still would have a shot because Baron, as mentioned before, should lose his two tough games, and - surprise surprise! - I only sit 40 points back from him in total scoring. A loss to Tim, however, would mean I would pretty much have to run the table (which would mean beating Sean) and need some luck to make it through.
Tim, if he beats me, would either stay two games back of Baron or one game back of Baron and Joe if Joe wins. Tim has the overall scoring lead on everyone not named Baron in this grouping, which means he's within those 40 points I mentioned above. Plus, outside of Bryan, his schedule the final two weeks is the easiest of anyone's in the league. So in reality, the game between Tim and myself will essentially eliminate one player from contention.
I love that Jeff's team has gotten tough quickly, but Bryan's team has been an absolute buzzsaw the last three or four weeks. One loss would eliminate Jeff.
Danny needs to run the table and a lot of luck. And with Dan in front of him, I'm having trouble saying we'll be talking about him as a playoff contender next week.

There you have it. A long look at what could happen the next four weeks. But here's what we know: THIS WEEK IS HUGE.

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, by Unknown

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