The Stat Attack is Back Jack!
1:07:00 PMCheck that out. It's pretty obvious what that is. But in case you can't tell, it's a breakdown of what kind of scoring ESPN is projecting from our teams, sans defense and kicker.
Now, I got these numbers by creating everyone's "optimal" lineups. That means your QB and TE total reflects your top, singular QB and TE option. WR and RB numbers reflect your best two options at those positions based on ESPN's projections. Your FLEX spot is determined by your two best options to start at Flex that aren't being counted in your WR, RB, or TE positions.
In the spirit of Tiers, let's separate the league into Tiers (in order of best to worst within each tier):
Tier 1: Tim
Tier 2: Dan, Sean, Bryan
Tier 3: Jeff, Joe, Danny
Tier 4: Baron, Katarya, Jose
And in case you were wondering, here is how each team ranks by position:
| QB | ||
| Sean | 368 | 1 |
| Tim | 347 | 2 |
| Jeff | 329 | 3 |
| Danny | 289 | 4 |
| Jose | 285 | 5 |
| Joe | 284 | 6 |
| Dan | 282 | 7 |
| Bryan | 277 | 8 |
| Baron | 264 | 9 |
| Arun | 261 | 10 |
RB
| Tim | 440 | 1 |
| Bryan | 424 | 2 |
| Baron | 414 | 3 |
| Arun | 409 | 4 |
| Joe | 406 | 5 |
| Dan | 394 | 6 |
| Sean | 353 | 7 |
| Danny | 345 | 8 |
| Jose | 319 | 9 |
| Jeff | 309 | 10 |
| WR | ||
| Dan | 416 | 1 |
| Danny | 386 | 2 |
| Sean | 375 | 3 |
| Jose | 367 | 4 |
| Bryan | 339 | 5 |
| Tim | 335 | 6 |
| Arun | 323 | 7 |
| Jeff | 322 | 8 |
| Joe | 318 | 9 |
| Baron | 295 | 10 |
| TE | ||
| Jeff | 189 | 1 |
| Joe | 164 | 2 |
| Arun | 155 | 3 |
| Jose | 135 | 4 |
| Tim | 129 | 5 |
| Danny | 114 | 6 |
| Baron | 111 | 7 |
| Sean | 103 | 8 |
| Dan | 90 | 9 |
| Bryan | 88 | 10 |
FLEX
| Bryan | 329 | 1 |
| Dan | 329 | 1 |
| Tim | 317 | 3 |
| Baron | 310 | 4 |
| Danny | 298 | 5 |
| Jeff | 292 | 6 |
| Jose | 280 | 7 |
| Sean | 273 | 8 |
| Joe | 262 | 9 |
| Arun | 242 | 10 |
Here are some of the things that I noticed:
- No surprise seeing me in last place. But what I was surprised about is that, other than RB, my team doesn't fair all that poorly. But that just speaks volumes to the effect that RBs have in the fantasy game. The gap that ESPN projects in points can be very large between top talent, mid-level talent, and lower level talent.
- Having invested so much in Peyton and Foster, seeing Sean third overall took me by surprise. ESPN does love Peyton though, and he can put up a TON of points. But it was the fact that Sean went heavy on WR that has helped him buoy up (Jordy and A. Brown)
- In my two main leagues, the two owners projected to do the best are named Tim.
- It's amazing how much the projections line up with the construction of our keeper system. What I mean by that is, in order to maximize your draft potential, you want to keep the best deal you can for that year. It doesn't matter if you like the guy or not, but if you keep a $40 player for $7, that better than keeping a $25 player for $1. It's simple math, but it really goes a long way. And nowhere is that more evident than Tim. He used his $40+ in savings to nab AP (to give him the best RB combo) and Aaron Rodgers. His bench has probably suffered a bit because of it, but his top heaviness has made him a clear favorite to lead the league in points scored.
- Piggybacking on the previous comment, seeing both Aaron's at the bottom is no surprise either considering Katarya gave up $13 last year for short term success, and Baron had to spend a lot of money to drop two players. Even Joe traded some draft money away last year and is projected 6th best.
- Dan with the best WR core in the league. Where have I seen that before?
- I know we don't wonder why Bryan usually has a good team, but I think a part of it can be attributed to his ability to find value in the Flex spot. Last year it was TY Hilton, and this year his combo of Ben Tate/Rashad Jennings has him projected to have the best Flex spot. He basically just waits on value after spending big to start the draft, but he doesn't seem to spend as much as a Dan or Tim (this year's version) off the bat, letting him get those guys towards the latter stages of the draft.
- Baron went big on getting those three RBs on his team, but his WR situation suffered for it. A lot I think.
- What's interesting is that a lot of the teams that are projected to be towards the bottom half of the league (Jeff, Joe, Arun, Jose) all have some of the top TEs. Huge value can be had at TE this year both at the top and bottom, and I think ESPNs projections have vaulted a lot of lower ranked TEs, closing the gap with the top players. So if those bottom TEs don't hit, it could give those guys a chance to field better teams. Another way to look at it is that investing in those top TEs takes money from potential WR and RB cores, which are always advocated as the way to win leagues. And with my graph showing two WRs and RBs, the larger totals at those positions will create larger gaps.
- So how are the higher ranked teams supposed to win? Simple, have the elite WRs and RBs do what they do. How do the lower ranked teams win? Have huge TE games. How does Baron win? He needs all three RBs to have good days.
- So how are the higher ranked teams supposed to win? Simple, have the elite WRs and RBs do what they do. How do the lower ranked teams win? Have huge TE games. How does Baron win? He needs all three RBs to have good days.
Oh, and my first two games of the season? Tim, then Dan. Because of course.
Soak it all in folks! It's football season!

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