To Post is to Err
6:05:00 PM
Hey friends! Remember this blog? I sure do.
Posts on here are fewer and further between than they ever have been, and that shouldn't be a surprise. We've got the GroupMe now to keep us entertained, and I've given up any pursuit of rule changes, so it's a happy medium. But that doesn't mean I won't use this blog every once in a blue moon to do a post about whatever's tickling my fancy at the moment. And luckily for you, I have two subjects tickling my fancy at the same time!
Let's start with my first pursuit - historical data mining (no surprise).
In the last few weeks I've become really interested in seeing if there was any way we could look at our historical data to make assumptions on this season. Specifically, I wanted to know if we could look at past records and determine if a team will make the playoffs by week X of the season.
So I sat down and went through seven years of league history (I don't have access to the first year we did this league) and looked at everyone's records in weeks 5 and 6 and determined what people's odds were to make the playoffs based on their record right now. And boy howdy was it interesting - if only to me. Here it is:
| Record after Week 5 | Total Instances | Playoff Instances | Playoff Chances |
| 5-0 | 2 | 2 | 100.00% |
| 4-1 | 12 | 10 | 83.33% |
| 3-1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 3-2 | 20 | 10 | 50.00% |
| 2-2-1 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2-3 | 15 | 5 | 33.33% |
| 1-3-1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 1-4 | 13 | 1 | 7.69% |
| 0-5 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% |
Simply put, the far right column are the odds you'll make the playoffs based upon the record after week 5 in the left hand column. I find this stupid fascinating, if only for some of the old stories we pull from this:
- Only one team has ever started 1-4 and made it to the playoffs. Take a bow Danny. In 2012 Danny's team started 1-4, but in a fact that should surprise no one, Cam Newton took off and Danny ended the season on a torrid 6-2 run to sneak into the playoffs.
- While Danny's story is cool, it still doesn't paint a pretty picture for any team starting 1-4 or 0-5. There have been 15 total instances where a team has started with that record, and like I said, Danny is the only one to make it through the gauntlet. And in case you're wondering, that means you have a 6.67% chance of making the playoffs at that point.
- What's really interesting to me is that having a 3-2 record is by no means an indicator that you'll make the playoffs. We have five - count 'em, five - teams currently at 3-2 right now. A little deeper dive shows that, on average, nearly three teams that are 3-2 after week 5 will make the playoffs. While this may not make sense with the data, it makes sense with our league this year, which I'll get back to in a bit.
- Tim is sitting so pretty right now at 5-0. No team has ever had that record and not made the playoffs.
- All hope isn't lost for Sean or Bryan this year. 33% of teams that are 2-3 do make the playoffs. Problem is, there isn't a third 2-3 team to help pull odds against. What's really going to matter is the result of week 6.
| Record after Week 6 | Total Instances | Playoff Instances | Playoff Chances |
| 6-0 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| 5-1 | 7 | 6 | 85.71% |
| 4-1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 4-2 | 18 | 13 | 72.22% |
| 3-2-1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 3-3 | 15 | 7 | 46.67% |
| 2-3-1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2-4 | 13 | 3 | 23.08% |
| 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 0-6 | 8 | 0 | 0.00% |
Admittedly, week 5 data helps in some regard, but it doesn't give us very good insight. Sure, you can say that three of the four teams that will make the playoffs will come from a 3-2 record or better, but usually you have 6 or 7 teams in that jumbled mess as it is. You're not going to be able to have confidence in your ability to make the playoffs until we get further along in the season.
But once we look at week 6 data, it gets really fun.
- Tim currently is sporting a 5-1 record. Even if he loses this week to Jeff, he'll still have an 86% chance of making the playoffs. Unless we see the collapse of the century (and you can bet I'll hashtag the everliving daylights out of that line if he does collapse), you can already give a playoff spot to Tim.
- For all you teams currently sporting a 3-2 record, this weekend is going to be a big weekend for you. Teams that go from 3-2 to 4-2 see their playoff odds jump from 50% to 72%. That's fairly significant. Of course, the yang to that yin is that if you lose, your odds drop to 47%. You still have a decent shot, but it does get harder. Joe and I have a matchup of 3-2 teams for sole possession of first place in our division, so the winner of this game will sit a lot prettier after Monday. Jeff gets to take on Tim while Siems and Dan get to take on some 2-3 teams. Speaking of those teams...
- 2-3 teams should worry. If you lose, your odds fall from 33% to 23% to make the playoffs. What's even worse is that this week, our two 2-3 teams (Sean and Bryan) play 3-2 teams. A loss would put them two games back of Dan and Siems respectively.
- Side note: No team that has ever had a tie by week 6 in their season has ever made the playoffs. Ties have only happened 6% of the time in our league, but still a wonky little thing I noticed that I thought was amusing
- Historically, by the end of week 6, 2.86 teams that make the playoffs have a record of 4-2 or better. We're guaranteed to have two teams meet that criteria after the games this week, and if we get a win from Dan, Siems, or Jeff, then you'll immediately see your favorites to make the playoffs this year.
- It's basically an every other year thing for teams that are 2-4 to make the playoffs. On average, only .48 teams that make the playoffs had a record of 2-4. I'm just saying that you shouldn't lose Sean or Bryan.
- Danny and Katarya face an interesting situation. No team has ever been 1-5 and made the playoffs. Danny is 1-4. If Katarya can beat Danny, he will effectively knock Danny out of the playoffs. He'll most likely keep his own slim hopes alive, but if enough teams go 4-2 to start the season, he'll still be looking at the most improbable comeback in the history of our league.
- To sum it up, outside of Danny's miracle 2013 (I don't think we appreciate that enough), Sean's 2011, and Dan's 2009, every other team to have ever made the playoffs has had a record of 3-3 or better. That's 95% of the time. We could have as many as eight teams with 3-3 records or better, or as few as six. Mind you, Tim has basically locked up a spot already, so it could be seven teams fighting for three spots. But if Danny can beat Katarya, he does keep a 5% chance of hope alive, and he's done it before.
Now here's a random YouTube video to breakup the monotony.
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But that was the first thing I wanted to talk to you guys about. I was having a nice convo with Joe and he was telling me that I should look at historical owner rankings. Basically, let's add up a bunch of different criteria and see which owners have been the best in our league since we've been doing this. Think of this as your ultimate prestige ranking.
Of course, being that I'm in full on ADD mode with my fantasy football writings, I took it upon myself to come up with some super, double-blind, indisputable owner rankings. (Side note: I created a league that I could funnel all my creative fantasy football thoughts into. Some of you are aware of the league. It's been liberating and I'm enjoying fantasy football again more than ever because I'm not stressing about rules in this league or any other. This league has a team with a rotating GM. So far Baron, Joe, Ed, and Tim have all managed the team for one week. It's a crazy scoring and setup, but if you'd like to do it for one week, please let me know. Right now the Guest GM team is currently sitting just outside a spot to advance to the top division next year - like I said, it's kinda crazy - and I would love to see it fight for a spot instead of sit by the wayside).
Here's what I did. I created a weighted scoring system that would take into account four main criteria: Championships won, Non-championship playoff appearances, Total Points Scored, and Overall Record.
Each one of those criteria was weighted based on importance:
- Championships won: 10 points
- Non-championship playoff appearances: 5 points
- Total points scored: Inverted rank multiplied by 1.5 (so if you are the highest scoring team in league history, your inverted rank is 12, and that number is multiplied by 1.5)
- Overall record: Inverted rank
I then took your total score and divided it by the number of years you've been in the league. I've got the results listed below, in reverse order. Note that because I don't have point totals for our first year (would you Danny), I don't have it included. If you were to add Baron's championship though, he would move up one spot in the rankings.
And for fun, you'll see that I added the major sports team I think most aligns with your team. Think of it as your spirit animal, but in team form.
12. Jose
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 0
Total Points For: 7th
Total Record: 11th
Total Owner Score: 12.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 1.79 points per season
Short answer, I suck. My one saving grace is that preseason predictions have had me as a top 2 team the last two years. I was decimated by injuries to Rodgers and Dez last year, and I actually have a team that could do something this year. But historically, it's been one ugly ride.
Spirit Team: Minnesota Timberwolves - The NBA lets more teams into the playoffs than they don't. And yet the Wolves have gone 12 years without actually making the playoffs. It just doesn't make any sense until you realize "Oh, wait, no...they've actually sucked for years."
11. Jeff
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 1
Total Points For: 9th
Total Record: 9th
Total Owner Score: 16.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 2.36 points per season
Jeff redeemed himself with a playoff appearance in 2015. Generally he's shared the bottom of the barrel with me. However, in recent years he's moved past his "old WRs" stereotypes and has started putting together solid teams. If I recall correctly, he narrowly missed the playoffs in 2014 before making it to the championship last year. He's now got a team that's 3-2, so there isn't a ton of fall off. He's also done it with keeper classes that no one would be dying to have, so it's an especially positive turnaround.
Spirit Team: Baltimore Orioles - Sure you've been awful for years and years, but suddenly you got a little talent, some better coaching, and BAM, you're now competing for the playoffs every other year.
10. Ken
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 0
Total Points For: 12th
Total Record: 12th
Total Owner Score: 2.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 2.5 points per season
There isn't much to say about Ken's team as he was only in the league one year. I remember he had a respectable WR group, and had Eric Decker get something like 40 points on his bench. So while he has a small sample size (teehee), he still pulls in ahead of Jeff and myself. Although if you notice the Average Owner Score column, Jeff has pulled very close to Ken.
Spirit Team: Las Vegas Outlaws - The defunct XFL team that proudly brought us He Hate Me. They lasted one or two years, were awful, and never returned.
9. Ed
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 1
Total Points For: 10th
Total Record: 10th
Total Owner Score: 12.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 3.13 points per season
Ed spent four seasons in the league and, at the rate he was going at, would've been near the bottom as we progressed. I don't remember too much about why Ed had trouble most years, but I do remember the one draft where he took MJD, AP, and some other top 5 RB. Of course, because injuries happen, two of those three RBs tanked and Ed's season was completely down the toilet. Ed's ownership levels can be grouped in with Ken and Jeff in their own tier, as we start jumping into teams that have made a more significant mark on the league. Again, note that I didn't say I was in their tier. I'm in a class all by myself.
Spirit Team - Colorado Avalanche - You're going to hate me for this, but the Avalanche, at least under Roy, spent a whole bunch of time missing the playoffs. But they made it one year with a flukey goal differential and balls to the wall strategy that shouldn't have worked, but it did. Once. And then they went back to being awful.
8. Danny
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 3
Total Points For: 8th
Total Record: 9th
Total Owner Score: 29 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 4.14 points per season
Danny's been our resident Cardiac Kid. He's built a reputation as a slow starter, a methodical GM who's generally more careful about his moves than the rest of us, but a guy who's team catches fire in the second half of the season. He's ridden this to three playoff appearances in seven seasons. He hasn't been able to win a championship, and his slow starts have skewed his point totals and overall record down compared to others, but only three teams have made it to the playoffs more times than Danny. It's because of that prowess that he sits in a tier above the people below him.
Spirit Team - Carolina Panthers - Who else would it be? Danny's whole team feels like it's Panthers sometimes, and when they do well, he does well. I think over the course of two years they started slow, Danny did too, and then they took and launched Danny into the playoffs.
7. Tim
Championships: 1
Playoff Appearances: 2
Total Points For: 3rd
Total Record: 4th
Total Owner Score: 39 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 5.57 points per season
This might surprise some people considering Tim's recent success. He's the lowest ranked person with a championship to his name. He even has been one of the highest scorers in the history of our league, and had some of the better records we've seen. So what's done him in? Well, it doesn't help that he has only two playoff appearances. We're all aware that for a two year span he was a top four scoring team, but kept losing enough fluke games to where he never made the playoffs. But what we don't pay attention to are the other years he's missed the playoffs. He's had teams that always hover around .500, which inflates his overall record, but because he's got seven years worth of playing in this league, his Average Owner Score is deflated. This is probably a case of where the owner is better than his rank indicates, but this is just how the numbers churned themselves out.
Spirit Team - Dallas Mavericks - Consistently consistent. They were able to Hulk out and nab themselves a championship in 09 or whatever, and they do consistently field playoff worthy teams. They just either sneak in as the 8th spot or barely miss out. Roughly how Tim does it. Granted, if he wins a championship this year, this team will have to change.
MOAR VIDEOS!
6. Arun
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 4
Total Points For: 4th
Total Record: 5th
Total Owner Score: 40.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 5.79 points per season
Are you surprised to see Katarya's team has made it to the playoff four times? You shouldn't be. We make fun of Hairon Buttarya now, but he had a good streak where not only would he go to the playoff every two or three years, but he'd do it with double digit wins. If you were to plot overall records against a mean, Katarya would have the biggest range of anyone out there (well, not vocal range). His four appearances trump Tim's two appearances, and gives him the slightest of leads on his rival. Granted, Tim is most likely going to overcome Katarya this year, but as we stand today, Brown Town is sixth.
Spirit Team - Florida Marlins - None of this Miami crap. Katarya is the old school black and teal Marlins. They would consistently suck for years, then they'd sell the farm, buy up a bunch of great players, burn through the league, and then go straight back to being awful. Even though they have championships and Katarya doesn't, he does embody those Wild West Marlins of yore.
5. Baron
Championships: 2*
Playoff Appearances: 3
Total Points For: 5th
Total Record: 7th
Total Owner Score: 43 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 6.14 points per season
*If you were to include Baron's other championship, he'd be 4th
Baron is an interesting case. Here's a team that dominated our league. 3 championships in the first, what four years? Five? He got some incredible performances from late season pickups, and had his teams catch fire as he muscled his way into the playoffs. I believe he was the #4 seed in at least two of his championships. But that's pretty much where the adulation ends. There was a reason he was the four-seed in those playoffs, and it was because he started slower than other. For a guy who has two championships, he's only 5th in total scoring, and 7th in record. In fact, the guy who's closest to him in overall points scored is yours truly. He's buoyed by those championships, everything else is fools gold. But he has what matters, that's for sure.
Spirit Team - Liverpool - Go look at the Premier League standings the last few years. Look at where Liverpool sits in the table. That should be all you need to know. Liverpool is one England's most decorated teams ever. Just look at all they've won in their Wikipedia page! But notice how they haven't won their league since 1990? Yet their fans hold onto those memories like it justifies them being included amongst the elite of the Premier League. Mic drop.
4. Sean
Championships: 0
Playoff Appearances: 4
Total Points For: 9th
Total Record: 1st
Total Owner Score: 38 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 6.33 points per season
Sean may be the year over year best player in the history of our league. There was a three year span where he went 8-5, 11-2, and 12-1. No one has come close to that kind of dominance. He's 9th in scoring because he missed a year. If you were to extrapolate that out another season, he'd be first. Best record, highest per season scoring average, and four playoff appearances. He should be the most decorated owner in our league. But alas, he hasn't been able to advance in the playoffs enough to do so. I remember the year he had Jordy on his bench because he wasn't sure if he was going to play. Jordy ended up scoring enough to win Sean the game, but because of the uncertainty, it wasn't meant to be...
Spirit Team - San Jose Sharks - Poor Sharks. They went to the playoffs something like four years in a row, oftentimes as the best team in the NHL, and then just got bounced each year in the first round. Sound familiar Sean?
3. Dan
Championships: 1
Playoff Appearances: 4
Total Points For: 2nd
Total Record: 5th
Total Owner Score: 49.5 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 7.07 points per season
You won't see me deny that I don't think Dan benefited most from our new keeper rules when we transitioned over. He kept Demayrius Thomas in what is the single greatest contract in our league's history. But you won't see Dan complain either. He was able to ride Thomas to a streak of three straight playoff appearances from 2012-2014, with a championship in 2012 to show for it. That's helped him to a total of four playoff appearances and the overall second highest scoring total in our league's history. What's amazing is that, in the seven years I've got data for, he's either made the playoffs or ended the season in dead last five of those years. No one can claim that. Not even Katarya.
Spirit Team - Dallas Cowboys - I hate to say it, but there are similarities to the Cowboys trade of Herschel Walker and Dan's ability to find and keep Thomas. The Cowboys built a dynasty on the back of those Vikings picks, and Dan built a perennial powerhouse on the back knowing the keeper system and identifying one hell of a player.
2. Bryan
Championships: 2
Playoff Appearances: 4
Total Points For: 1st
Total Record: 2nd
Total Owner Score: 59 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 8.43 points per season
In terms of continued dominance, Bryan wins hands down. He's been able to put together teams over the course of seven years that consistently beat down on the league. Just look at the difference between Bryan's Average Owner Score and Dan's. He's been able to make the playoffs four times, and has followed up with multiple championships while there. What's even more impressive is that, like Jeff, he's doing this with keepers that a lot of other people wouldn't have thought to be the best players or deals out there (Hilton and V Jax come to mind). He's led the league in overall scoring twice, finished top 3 three times, and has never finished below fifth in any season. It's a frighteningly consistent team. Well, outside of last year.
Spirit Team - San Francisco Giants - Consistently good, routinely winning championships every other year
1. Joe
Championships: 1
Playoff Appearances: 2
Total Points For: 11th
Total Record: 3rd
Total Owner Score: 28 points overall.
Average Owner Score: 9.33 points per season
If you think about it, this makes a lot of sense. Joe just finished up his third year in the league. He's made the playoffs twice, and managed to win a championship one of those times. He has the third best winning percentage in the history of our league, and as you'll see below, is rapidly approaching some of us in total overall wins. There are two sides to this coin, as Joe did inherit Lacy and Le'Veon from Ed that he could keep, but he's also put together some of the shrewdest teams out there. Every time I walk out of a draft I go "I don't think Joe has a very good team". And now here I am, playing him this week as he has a record of 3-2 and has scored more points than me.
Spirit Team - Leicester City - I know you don't know who this is Joe, but let me fill you in. Four or five years ago Leicester City was sitting in England's third division of soccer. Then, out of nowhere, they finished top in their table and moved up to the second division. And soon after that, they were in the top division. And soon after that, they had won the whole damn thing. It is considered to be the most unlikely championship in modern sports in our lifetime. I'm not saying your win was unlikely, I'm just saying you've rocketed up at the same pace as those guys.
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As I was going through this list of criteria, I learned a lot about other teams, and more importantly, my own team. I wanted to cap this post off with a gift for you guys. In what has been a fun and enlightening experience, I've come to learn new ways that my team has been awful throughout the years. Without further adieu, I present to you Jose's Hall of Ineptitude.
Jose's Hall of Ineptitude
- There have been two instances all time where a team has gone 0-5 to start the season: Jose in 2009 and again in 2015
- Mind you, I went 0-6 in those seasons as well
- You're all well aware of how I've never made the playoffs. And you've all made ample fun of me for having the worst teams historically. Well, now the data backs it up! I have the second worst winning percentage of any owner in the history of this league. The only person I'm ahead of? Ken.
- I have tied five times in this league. Three times in one year. The next closest person is Tim with three. After that, no one has more than one.
- In 2011 I needed only one win or one Siems loss in my last two games to make the playoffs. You all know how this story ends.
- In three season Joe has 22 wins. In four Ed has 21. In seven full seasons, I've had 32. That means that Joe's average 7.33 wins per season, Ed 5.2 per season, and me a whopping 4.5. At this rate, Joe will pass me sometime in 2017.
- Bryan has more wins than I do losses. This only matters because I am the first person to 50 losses in this league.
- Did I mention five freaking ties?
- But despite all this, I have never actually ended the season in last place, both in the regular season and post season. 2015 was Siems and Bryan respectively; 2014: Katarya and Katayra; 2013: Ken and Jeff; 2012: Ed and Ed; 2011: Dan and Dan; 2010: Danny and Dan; 2009: Danny and Sean.
Suck it nerds.
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