Congrats to Joe as he outlasted Tim for the playoffs this year!  Tim's been the unfortunate victim of two very strong years, only to miss the playoffs in both of them.  I'll have a playoff preview writeup soon (I say that like it's a for sure thing when it really isn't).  

But in the meantime, with the playoffs set, that means some clauses have been hit or missed for trades.  I'm using this post to recap all trades involving money so that we can keep things straight.  This post purely captures draft money being exchanged, not the players involved.  If you see that I'm missing something, let me know and I'll revise this document.  In the meantime, here's what we know:

Arun
Received:
$8 via Jose
$7 via Siems
$7 via Sean

Sent:
None

Sean
Received:
None

Sent:
$7 to Arun

Siems
Received:
$13 via Tim

Sent:
$7 to Arun

Joe
Received:
None

Sent:
$7 to Jose

Tim
Received:
None

Sent:
$13 to Siems
$8 to Jose

Danny
Received:
$10 via Jose

Sent:
None

Jeff
Received:
None

Sent:
$6 to Jose

Jose
Received:
$8 via Tim
$7 via Joe
$6 via Jeff

Sent:
$10 to Danny
$8 to Arun

*          *          *          *          *         *

Here's the recap of everyone's draft money situation going into next year's draft as it stands today:

Arun - $226 (Katarya has release CJ Spiller from his contract and will pay dues next year, reducing this total)
Siems - $206 (This quantity will be reduced as he is still paying the Trent Richardson penalty fee)
Danny - $210
Sean - $193
Joe - $193
Jose - $203
Jeff - $194
Tim - $179 (If I cut Christine Michael, Tim will pay $4 of the penalty fee)
Bryan - $200
Dan - $200

Timothy Hanrahan gets:
Matthew Forte
Randall Corn Cobb

Aaron Siems gets:
Jonas(y) Gray
Torrey Smith
$13 + $1 if Tim wins the Billy Strubin Bowl
(Plus the Jose Stipulation - Cobb and Forte have to stay healthy)

Thank you for your time and good luck to you sirs.

In this edition of John's Overanalyzation of Playoff Scenarios discussion - or, more like just me talking - I'll be breaking down everyone's playoff chances with three weeks left in order from most likely to least likely.  It's not all that scientific and I'm probably going to miss a lot since there are still a lot of moving parts, but here it is what I know right now.

Sean - IN.  Congratulations Sean!  You should really rest up Foster if you want him ready for the playoffs.  Just sayin'

Dan - Essentially in.  Dan will make the playoffs definitively if he wins and one of Joe or Baron loses.  The only way he doesn't make it is if he loses out and both Joe and Baron win out.  And I say that only because he's outscored everyone so much that, at this point in the season, they can't really catch up to him in points scored.  So they'll have to beat him in outright record, not in points scored.

Bryan - Not as guaranteed as Dan.  Bryan's team has only scored 38 more points than Joe, and 53 more than Tim, who he plays this week.  He still has the same circumstances as Dan in that he makes the playoffs if he wins and one of Joe and Baron lose.  But, essentially, a win would all but clinch it for him since he does play Arun next week.  I'll elaborate more on Bryan's situation in Tim's section.

Joe - He'll be in if he wins out.  That is unless Baron outscores him by 107 points in three weeks.  He's got a very nice matchup against Danny this week, but then gets Dan, followed by a season ending matchup against Blake Sims.  Odds are definitely on Joe's side as his remaining schedule has a combined .467 winning percentage.  If he wins two of three, and Baron loses even one, then he should be in the playoffs.  Of course, there's the matter of what happens with Tim, Jeff, and myself.  But two of three would give him a huge leg up, especially since he's outscored everyone ranked 4-8.

Baron - If Baron makes the playoffs, it would definitely be an impressive feat.  He has the hardest schedule to end the season as he plays Sean this week, a rising Jeff team next week, and ends the season against Dan.  He does get a Foster-less Sean team this week (and Siems picked up Foster's backup mind you), so the odds are better.  But he needs to win more games than Joe the final three weeks, or have Bryan/Dan lose out.  They're plausible in theory, but less so if you think about the odds of it happening.  In short, he doesn't control his destiny, and needs Joe to fall a bit.

Tim - Tim is only 15 points - and one game - behind Joe.  At the same time, he's only 53 points behind Bryan.  And like I said, he plays Bryan this week.  If he wins, he'll be one game back of Bryan, and either one game back or tied with Joe/Baron.  On top of that, if he outscores Joe by enough, he would be the biggest contender to fight for that last playoff spot.  A loss, of course, combined with a Joe/Baron win, would almost completely eliminate him.  But if he wins this week, his end of season schedule includes Danny and Arun.  So Tim could run the table if he wins out.  And that would put a lot of pressure on the teams ahead of him.  Because if Bryan loses to Tim this week, he'll only be one game up and fewer than 53 points ahead of him.  And Joe would essentially be tied in points scored.  And Baron will almost 100 points behind him.  That's why I'm saying Tim and Bryan's game is the game of the week.  Because if Tim wins, he'll throw the single biggest wrench into the playoff scenario situation.

Jeff - Has anyone noticed Jeff's winning streak?  He's won his past three riding the legs of the Saints big three of Brees, Graham, and - wait for it - Mark Ingram.  And he just traded for Brandon Marshall.  It's not inconceivable that Jeff makes the playoffs, although he has to play Dan this week.  Let's just say Jeff wins.  He'll be, at the very least, one game back of Joe/Baron (or tied depending upon outcome), with Baron and Danny left on the season.  What he really needs to stay alive is a Tim loss AND a win, so it's an absolute uphill battle this week.  But if that happens, he'll play Baron next week in what will be an elimination game between the two.  And then he ends the season against Dan.  So, while odds are against him, they aren't impossible.

Jose - Being the lowest scoring team amongst the playoff contenders leaves the odds of making the playoffs the closest to impossible for me.  In short, I have to win out and need help.  With games on the horizon against Sean and Joe, those odds aren't looking so great.  The thing I have going for me is a matchup against Katarya this week, and so unfavorable matchups for other teams trying to make the playoffs.  For me to have a chance, I need one of Joe or Baron to lose, as well as Tim and Jeff to lose one of their remaining three games.  But if that scenario happens this week, I'll be tied for the final playoff spot (based on record), and have a head to head against Joe.  So if all plays out this week as it should, I'll still be in it.  But if I lose and one of Joe or Baron wins, then I'm done.

Danny and Arun - Next year homies.

Today's trades:

Jose Receives -

Calvin Johnson
A documented high five

Danny Receives -
Michael Floyd
$6

Second trade:

Jose Receives -

Justin Forsett
A documented hug

Danny Receives -
Lamar Miller
$4

Additional clause to this trade:

If Jose does not finish the MS Paint photo he owes Danny, he will be forced to give Danny $5 FA dollars next season.

Sorry, it's late so I won't be doing any fancy writeup.

Here's a quick rundown of the trades that I made with Tim and Jeff.

Tim:
Tim trades Joique Bell, $8*
Jose trades Jamaal Charles
*If Tim wins the championship and Charles doesn't get hurt, this total increases to $12.

Jeff:
Jeff trades Greg Jennings, $6
Jose trades Brandon Marshall

Cool?  Cool

It's a simple formula:

Three Week Scoring
 Season Scoring SOS

2. Joe – Would be #1, but he has to play me this week and I cannot give him any confidence. Also, Joe, breezy, bro, bruh, breahhhh… you have 8 guys on bye in one week? That’s some Jose shit that I did not expect to see from you. 3. Danny – Good bones, but just needs to flesh it out a bit. Oh right, his team… They have kept hope alive despite Killa Cam’s struggles, Megatron’s injury and the patchwork left behind. I can see a scenario where Danny finishes around .500. It goes like this: Killa Cam and Megatron play like themselves. Wes Welker gives Peyton a big hug, maybe a fruit basket. Then, he quits the Molly, picks up the ganja and orders a shit ton of Papa Johns. His concussion symptoms subside, he finds his happy place, promises to volunteer at the Manning Passing Camp and voila, he catches 12 TDs over the final 9 games. So yea, Danny finishes at .500. 4. Baron – Good acquisition with Cobb and Brees will turn it on soon. But holy shit, I cannot talk playoffs until he benches Vereen, Ingram & Andre Johnson, then drops EVERY SINGLE PLAYER ON HIS BENCH. Seriously there is not one person on his bench that I would want on my team. For those of you keeping track at home this includes, the Jets dynamic duo, 3 hometown heroes in Jennings, AD and Owen Daniels, 2 guys out for the year (one IR spot for a reason bud, you don’t keep these guys on the bench), and Blake Bortles. Blake motherfucking Bortles. He plays for the Jaguars. The fucking rookie QB for the worst franchise ever. Who decided Baron was good at Fantasy Football? <and red face fades to normal(ish)> 5. Air Kat – Defense does win championships. Plus, it would be hilarious to see him pack it in and hit huge on some of his downgrades. Not huge enough to make the playoffs, but enough to beat Jose. 6. Jose – For he is the Jose, and only the Jose has the Jose’s legacy to uphold. Plus, too much time making graphs on other teams right now, not enough time making graphs for his own team. If he does make the playoffs, it is only because he failed at the only thing he is good at, being bad at fantasy football. (see last week’s answer, no we shall never stop making fun of Jose.) (Jose: Dude. You just described Jeff's team in full for Baron. Baron is House Hipster) Fuck. Well, hold off on that. Let me rewrite his. 4. Baron – So the first time I looked at his team, I couldn’t believe how bad it was. I wrote a lengthy description of how horrible every player on his bench was. Then, Jose told me, “Dude. You just described Jeff's team in full for Baron” Duly noted. Well, can’t go back on my rankings now, that would be un-American. And yes, I ranked Jeff above Air-Kat and the Jose. THIS WEEK'S QUESTIONS 

- Remember how I said that it was Sean, Dan, Bryan, and everyone else?  No surprise, except for maybe that Dan has outscored Sean.  It's worth looking at how they're scoring.  They are top three when it comes to WR scoring in the last three weeks.  Sean's gruesome twosome of Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson has actually fallen off, and Dan has gotten massive contributions from Demayrius Thomas.  Bryan, of course, is now living the TY Hilton magic carpet ride.  Dan is getting his contributions from the Flex as, if I'm not to be mistaken, he's been putting Andre Ellington there.  Sean is still just really good at the RB spot, and Bryan at the TE spot.  Antonio Gates has scored six TDs in his last four, including two against me on Friday...And then of course they have those QB situations.

If there's one thing to look at, it's how buoyed by kicking and defense Bryan's team has been.  Don't get me wrong, he's strong in other areas and Lesean McCoy should only get better, but I always like to think those could fluctuate.

- Aaron Katarya: Defense does not win championships

- Jeff has always been a curious case study to me (Sorry Jeff, but I'm going analyze your situation so long as you and I share a lack of playoff appearance).  He drafted a Top 3 QB, and has been in 6th on the season, although it should be noted that Brees has been on bye once.  He also drafted the Top TE in the draft.  Basically, he did things that we don't normally see Jeff do, and he's had a string of unlucky breaks that have actually made him below average at all those positions.  And what's worse, he's been stuck with a lot of WR mediocrity, which has affected his WR and flex positions.  I'm not saying Jeff should've made the playoffs this year, but his team should've been better than mine to this point.

- Tim's scoring has been pretty consistent.  He's actually scoring a little less.  I haven't looked at his team enough to say it's been one thing over another, but if I had to guess, I think Alshon's lack of production recently has made his team look just a bit weaker.  He never really had AP in the first place as it is.  But darn it if he's not consistent.

- If there is a team or teams who have a real chance to trend up as we get into the second half of the season, it's Baron's and Joe's.  Let's be honest with ourselves, while Danny, Tim, and I will fight tooth and nail to get that last playoff spot, there is a noticeable gap between where Joe and Baron sit right now compared to us three.  I'll start with Baron.  His success is purely speculative on my point since we need to see what this trade does for him, but his team has been 5th in scoring the past three weeks, and you can mainly thank Forte for that.  He also gets a lot of luck when he plays Tim while Forte's on his bye.  Tim will be missing half his team, including Alshon Jeffery, Joique Bell, Aaron Rodgers, Robbie Gould, and Delanie Walker.  If you add in his trade for Cobb and the reemergence of Tom Brady, a playoff push is seriously possible.  And from my perspective, seeing all three championship winners in the playoffs would make us underdogs not enthused.

Which is why, outside of myself, I'll be hoping Joe's team puts it together during the stretch run.  He's seen his RB scoring increasing, although his QB play has taken a serious poop this past three weeks.  The reason I think Joe is already on the upswing is the soon to be return of Megatron.  That'll only help Stafford start putting up the numbers he can put up.  Plus, there's always Julius Thomas, who has a HUGE leg up on whatever TE Siems is rolling out right now.  The downside to Joe's success, though, is that Golden Tate should see his stats go down as he Megatron comes back.

- I guess no one has noticed Greg Olsen's success recently have they?  But outside of him, Danny's team is looking very meh.

So what can we infer from this data going forward?  For one, unless serious injury hits, we can pretty much say now, more than ever, that Dan, Bryan, and Sean are destined to make the playoffs.  Things can change of course, but that's where the trends are going right now.  If I had to guess where things end up, I'd say Sean gets the top spot, Dan second, and Bryan third.  If either Dan or Sean had one loss, I'd pick Dan to win the regular season.  I think Bryan is susceptible to possibly falling more than the other two, but I'm not comfortable saying he won't make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, for the fourth spot, I'm giving a slight edge to Joe.  Here's eaches remaining schedule:

Joe:
Jeff
Bryan
Siems
Danny
Dan
Jose

Baron:
Danny
Tim
Joe
Sean
Jeff
Dan

I've bolded any games I think they should win.  With the one game advantage for Joe, when he goes into his game against Siems, he should be tied for that final playoff spot.  But Joe has the easier final schedule, and they could very well end the season tied.  And even with his trade, Siems is almost 100 points behind Joe, so the tiebreaker could be huge.  Upsets do happen though.

With that then, here are my mid-season predictions for the rest of the year:

1. Sean
2. Dan
3. Bryan
4. Joe
5. Siems
6. Jose
7. Tim
8. Danny
9. Jeff
10. Arun

And yes, I did artificially boost myself ahead of Tim because I could #spreadsheetshomeboy

I'm calling this segment Hyperbolism Wednesday for the sole reason that I can.  It's a combination of hyperbole and realism, and you all are providing it.  So without further adieu, I'll let you all answer last week's questions.  Also, I know it's not Wednesday.

By the by, not everyone answered this week, but it's only week one.

1. The best record the league has ever recorded was Katarya in 2009. That year he had a 12-1 record. Sean is currently 6-0 and blowing everyone out of the water. Do you think he has a legitimate shot to take down Katarya's record?

Sean - I am going to take down Katarya's record simply because he traded Jamaal Charles away to Jose. This isn't the NBA Katarya - there should not be any "tanking".

Tim - He has a shot, but I don't think it'll happen. Has anyone ever seen an undefeated season in a fantasy league? Too much needs to break your way over the 3 months (injuries, luck of facing an opponent, etc.) and there will be the inevitable down week.

Danny - Yes. Especially because Katarya's '09 season was founded on the backs of a lot of lucky close calls and led to the christening of the Brown Banner.

Jose - I'm naturally a pessimist about these things. I mean, how is someone going to beat a 12-1 record?! Sure, Sean could tie it, but I struggle to think he's going to actually beat the record. That being said, he does have The Maestro (Manning) and two serious wide receivers. I just think that, at some point, his two RBs are going to fall off the wagon a bit. And besides, in the classic tradition of a Sean-run team, he'll dominate the regular season and lose somewhere in the playoffs.

Bryan - The best record the league has ever recorded was Katarya in 2009. That year he had a 12-1 record. Sean is currently 6-0 and blowing everyone out of the water. Do you think he has a legitimate shot to take down Katarya's record?

He has to play me once before the end of the year, so he definitely won’t go undefeated. He’s solid with his starting lineup and Peyton no doubt will dominate. But, this time of year depth is going to come into play with byes and injuries so some questions remain.

Baron - Yes, he has a legitimate shot. He has one player that is ranked outside of the top 6 of their respective positions... and that's his flex (and he's still in the top 25!) He will not have more than one loss, except in the playoffs when Peyton rests (like always).


Question 2: Jose is at it again, this time having traded for Jamaal Charles on top of his Philip Rivers trade earlier this year. Is this finally the year that he breaks through and makes the playoffs? Or do we get to keep making fun of him?

Sean - Having Rivers and Charles sure makes his team look appetizing....and I would definitely say at 3-3 the table is set for him to make a move. But the playoffs? No. SImply because it most likely comes down to him vs Bryan. And yeah....

Tim - Yes to both questions. Feels like your year, Jose, after lucking into a W or 2 already, and I'm pretty sure making fun of Andre in The League still happened when he made the finals that one season.

Danny - Maybe but I'm guessing not. Things are just too logged jammed in the middle of the pack right now, even with Charles (who's coming off an injury) it'll be hard to sustain a .500 record given how few points are being scored.

Jose - I sure hope so. Admittedly, I'm writing this post-Siems trade, and I know I have an uphill battle in front of me since I've scored so few points this year. But I have a solid WR core (at least in my mind), some solid RBs, and a QB that's played out of his mind. Then there's the Gronk. So yea, on paper this team can compete with anyone else's, but it's not like that'll make the whole difference.  

They say the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting the same results. Maybe only making two trades and trading away money will actually reverse my karma. Oh who am I kidding, I know for a fact that I won't make the playoffs until draw Danny's damn MS Paint drawing. It's like the Billy Goat Curse or something... Bryan - Jose is at it again, this time having traded for Jamaal Charles on top of his Philip Rivers trade earlier this year. Is this finally the year that he breaks through and makes the playoffs? Or do we get to keep making fun of him?

Well no matter what we keep making fun of him. If for some reason he stumbles into the playoffs we will all have to do a little soul searching to find out where this league is heading. Realistically this means lower your expectations for Rivers & Charles heading forward since the curse of the Cuban is bound to cause problems.
I do however applaud Jose for trading away draft money that he never seems to use anyways. It takes a big man to look inside and realize he is not going to change. Jose, you are a big man, a big, cheap man. See, no matter what we will continue making fun of him.

Check that out.  It's pretty obvious what that is.  But in case you can't tell, it's a breakdown of what kind of scoring ESPN is projecting from our teams, sans defense and kicker.

Now, I got these numbers by creating everyone's "optimal" lineups.  That means your QB and TE total reflects your top, singular QB and TE option.  WR and RB numbers reflect your best two options at those positions based on ESPN's projections.  Your FLEX spot is determined by your two best options to start at Flex that aren't being counted in your WR, RB, or TE positions.

In the spirit of Tiers, let's separate the league into Tiers (in order of best to worst within each tier):

Tier 1: Tim
Tier 2: Dan, Sean, Bryan
Tier 3: Jeff, Joe, Danny
Tier 4: Baron, Katarya, Jose

And in case you were wondering, here is how each team ranks by position:

QB
Sean	368	1
Tim	347	2
Jeff	329	3
Danny	289	4
Jose	285	5
Joe	284	6
Dan	282	7
Bryan	277	8
Baron	264	9
Arun	261	10

A quick post on which players are ineligible to be kept for each team. As a reminder, these players were picked up after the last week of the regular season and therefore, by rule, can't be held as keepers (not that you would want to keep any of these guys anyways...)

Joe
Jerrico Cotchery

Sean
Benjarvus Green-Ellis

Dan
Ben Roethlisberger
Martellus Bennett
Justin Tucker
Joe Flacco
Legarette Blount

Danny
Charles Clay

Jose
Delanie Walker

Tim
No one

Arun
James Starks
Jaguars D/ST

Baron
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Lions D/ST

Bryan
Julian Edelman
Andy Dalton

Jeff
No one

I've told you guys that I've spent hours upon hours working on developing some kind of statistical breakdown of players and their potential for this season.  What can I say, I want to win.  And I want to win by any (legal) means necessary.  If that means using my limited free time - and yes, it is limited - to work on a spreadsheet over the course of three months that helps me discover things about our league, then so be it.

But at the same time, I'm not good at hiding information for myself, so in the spirit of giving (and the lull of the off-season), I'm here to share some of what I discovered with you.  I'm not going to share the really juicy stuff I learned because I actually do want to have some information you don't, but I will share one thing I learned about every position I analyzed:  RB, WR, QB, and TE.

You know, because I care.

There's a pretty large caveat to all this info, and it's enough of a reason for you to disregard everything I'm telling you:  this info only uses the last two years of league stats.  I specifically chose the last two years because they've been our only auction years.  And what happened during those two years is actually quite different.  In 2012 players remained generally healthy, and 2013 had injuries everywhere.  It defnitely affected some things, but not enough to be able to deduce the following

1. RB Still Matters

Let me tell you the biggest shocker you'll hear all off-season:  Having an elite RB is good.

"Woop-de-freaking-do John.  Tell me something I don't know."

Um...I can't.  You know this already.

Here's the thing - what I learned was that, specifically, having a Top 6 RB mattered.  On average, the top 6 RBs outscored or matched the #1 WR in fantasy football.  What's more, the gap between the Top 2 (not 3) RBs, is even more pronounced.

Now, you may be asking yourself, if that's the case, what is it you need to do?  Get ready to be bludgeoned over the head by the truth here:

You need to pay for a top RB.

I'm always willing to help point it out for you.  24/7.

What my data found was that, of the Top 5 RBs drafted (in terms of money spent), 3 of them will finish in the Top 5.  And the fourth is usually drafted in the Top 10.

This makes sense because the top guys are getting drafted because they're, you know, good, and they have offenses that feature them because they're, you know, good.

So to put the odds in your favor, you want to pay for an AP, McCoy, or Charles.  Duh.

2. We're Really Good at Drafting WRs

A lot of what we do over the course of the season is trying to find that diamond in the rough pickup to help our team really jump past others.  Last year there was Zac Stacy and Julius Thomas.  The year before there was Alfred Morris.

But good luck trying to pickup a WR that will consistently help your team.  I mean, you'll be able to find a Marlon Brown or Laurent Robinson off the waiver wire after he blows up for a week, but to find a guy who's a threat every week is rare.  Oh, Keenan Allen last year you say?  Funny story, Baron actually drafted him.

"You know, drop him.  Because my team sucked last year." - Erin Seems

And that's kind of the point.  If every real life team has two legitimate WRs (and some 3), we should have something like 60-65 WRs who consistently can get some play.  What we've gotten to be really good at, essentially, is drafting all the WRs to finish in the Top 30.  That's three WRs per person, or enough to fill a flex spot for everyone.

Of the 30 most expensive WRs we've drafted, 65% of them have finished as Top 30 WRs.  That is the highest percentage of Top 30 picks of any position we draft from.  And once you factor in the the 31-60 WRs we draft, we're even more accurate (that is to say, if we draft 60 WRs, then how many of them finish in the Top 60).  So yea, we kind of pull all the meat off the bone with this position.

3. TEs Are a Crapshoot...Unless You have Jimmy Graham or a Healthy Gronk

Here's more super obvious stuff:  Jimmy Graham is a monster.  And so is the Gronk, when he's healthy.  And to a lesser degree, Julius Thomas.  But after that, good luck.  The deviation from TE4 through TE10 is the smallest deviation of any position that I researched.  That doesn't mean you can't have good weeks.  Just go ahead and ask Bryan about last year's TE4: Jason Witten.  That dude blew up some weeks.  But otherwise, everything kind of smooths itself out.

What's more, for as good as we are at drafting WRs, we're just as bad drafting TEs.  On average, we'll draft somewhere between 13-16 TEs in the draft.  Of those TEs drafted in the Top 10, only 45% will actually finish in the Top 10.  And once you take out Graham, that number only jumps up to 47.5%.

So why are we only able to hit on half our guesses in the Top 10?  Well, for one, because there seem to be more breakout TEs now than ever.  As these new uber athletic, basketball playing TEs enter the league, teams will try to use their athleticism to beat up on defenses.  It's just the trend of the league.

Which, of course, leads me to pure speculation.  I honestly think we'll get better at drafting TEs because more people will be talking about the Julius Thomas' of the world earlier and earlier.  And we'll identify and draft that kind of player going forward.

But as of right now, the kings of the gridiron are a Ginger and a Human Fiesta.  Yes, those titles are treated as proper nouns.


4. Forget What They Say, QBs Matter

There's been all this talk about how this is a passing league, and how there are so many QBs capable of putting up huge numbers, that all you need to do is wait on a QB and spend on other positions.  Let me counter with the following:

2012:  Dan wins the league with Aaron Rodgers, fantasy's #2 QB that year.  He defeats Danny, who has fantasy's #4 QB in Cam Newton

2013: Bryan wins the league with Andy Dalton and Matt Stafford (#5 and #7).  And Dan rides Josh McCown and his 22 point average into the playoffs.

Fact is, you could make an argument that having a Top QB is incredibly important.  After all, the elite QBs score more points than any other position.  We can talk all we want about finding "value" with QBs, but due to the high level of consistency in drafting the Top QBs (only 14.5% of QBs drafted in the Top 5 finished outside of the Top 5 (thank you Brees, Manning, and Rodgers)), this is a classic example of you "you know what you're getting".  And you know that, with the elite players, you're getting more points than any other position.  I mean, if Drew Brees scores 30 points, that could be enough to outscore an entire WR corp.  I'm not even looking at what the other guy's QB did.

So while this bulletpoint has less to do with the actual data I discovered, it's still relevant to our league.  Our top players (and this can continue to Baron when he picked up Kaepernick before the playoffs three years ago) usually wind up with some of the top QBs.

*       *       *       *       *       *       *       *       *       *

Those are just four fun little nuggets I "discovered" while doing this exercise.  Doing this is kind of like an exercise in psychology:  It becomes a painful elaboration of the obvious.  And that's why I'm willing to share.  Because none of this should be all that new to you.  So it shouldn't affect your strategy.  But if it does, stop right now.  Remember who's giving you this informaton.  After all, there's a reason I've never made the playoffs.

Doing this exercise might help explain why.