I need 3 CC's of Data! S.T.A.T!

7:08:00 AM

I've finally settled on a system that makes weekly stat updates easier to manage.  It doesn't mean it's perfect - as evidenced by the random TEAM and (blank) columns below, but it's something I'm getting better at and wanted to share with you all.  Below is a summary of scoring on the season, by position, for every team in the league.  Below the pivot table is a simple rank by position for each owner.  So, for example, on the season, Katarya has the highest scoring defense and second highest scoring kicker.  It's just everywhere else that sucks.  




You'll also see that the top three scorers at any position are highlighted in green, and the bottom three in red.  It basically visualizes how good Sean's team has been.

There are some takeaways from this that should be obvious.  I don't need to dive too far in, but I'll elaborate on a couple of quick things.  

- I'm becoming a bit obsessed with QB strategy as it relates to scoring.  Think about all the websites and pundits that say you should wait on a QB.  But in our league - and historically this holds up too - the team's with the top three QBs are 1st, 2nd, and 5th in scoring.  Of those three, two of the teams (Sean and Tim) took pre-season Top 3 QBs, and Dan took the guy who was most expected to make the jump into the upper pantheon.  Meanwhile, Joe and Bryan are both employing a different strategy from those three with very good results.  Essentially, they each took a pre-season Top 7 QB, and then followed up with value picks for QBs with Top 10 potential.  While they're 4th and 6th in QB scoring, their teams are still some of the highest scorers out there.  There's definitely actionable intel to pull from this, but I think I'm just more enlightened by how our league bucks the "Wait on QB" strategy all the pundits talk about.

- Looking at the overall season, it's worth noting that the two divisions feature an absolute division of power.  It's kind of like the NBA of the last 15 years or so, with the Sean/Bryan/Tim/Arun/Jose division generally being tougher than the rest.  Again, solely looking at it from a whole-season standpoint, The 10th, 8th, and 7th highest scoring teams sit in non-MN/IL division.  If Dan and Joe have to play those teams twice, it works to their advantage.  

That being said, I don't want to make too many generalities because Arun has made himself noticeably worse, and Siems better (I hesitate to say noticeably, but that's just because I'm more pessimistic on Randall Cobb than 95% of the people out there).  

- Take a look at Danny's team and see that he's in pretty poor position everywhere except TE, K, and WR.  I just want to point out that of those two skill player positions, he's been riding Greg Olsen, Steve Smith Sr., and Kelvin Benjamin - all current or former Panthers.

Now, we all know that teams can trend upwards and downwards, so I've been keeping a running three week tab on all teams.  So below is how scoring has broken down in the past three weeks.  This is especially interesting because we've gotten into the bye season.  And I'm personally excited about what the info will show in two weeks when we start accounting for the bye week from hell (Falcons, Bills, Bears, Lions, Packers, and Titans all on bye)




- Remember how I said that it was Sean, Dan, Bryan, and everyone else?  No surprise, except for maybe that Dan has outscored Sean.  It's worth looking at how they're scoring.  They are top three when it comes to WR scoring in the last three weeks.  Sean's gruesome twosome of Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson has actually fallen off, and Dan has gotten massive contributions from Demayrius Thomas.  Bryan, of course, is now living the TY Hilton magic carpet ride.  Dan is getting his contributions from the Flex as, if I'm not to be mistaken, he's been putting Andre Ellington there.  Sean is still just really good at the RB spot, and Bryan at the TE spot.  Antonio Gates has scored six TDs in his last four, including two against me on Friday...And then of course they have those QB situations.

If there's one thing to look at, it's how buoyed by kicking and defense Bryan's team has been.  Don't get me wrong, he's strong in other areas and Lesean McCoy should only get better, but I always like to think those could fluctuate.

- Aaron Katarya: Defense does not win championships

- Jeff has always been a curious case study to me (Sorry Jeff, but I'm going analyze your situation so long as you and I share a lack of playoff appearance).  He drafted a Top 3 QB, and has been in 6th on the season, although it should be noted that Brees has been on bye once.  He also drafted the Top TE in the draft.  Basically, he did things that we don't normally see Jeff do, and he's had a string of unlucky breaks that have actually made him below average at all those positions.  And what's worse, he's been stuck with a lot of WR mediocrity, which has affected his WR and flex positions.  I'm not saying Jeff should've made the playoffs this year, but his team should've been better than mine to this point.

- Tim's scoring has been pretty consistent.  He's actually scoring a little less.  I haven't looked at his team enough to say it's been one thing over another, but if I had to guess, I think Alshon's lack of production recently has made his team look just a bit weaker.  He never really had AP in the first place as it is.  But darn it if he's not consistent.

- If there is a team or teams who have a real chance to trend up as we get into the second half of the season, it's Baron's and Joe's.  Let's be honest with ourselves, while Danny, Tim, and I will fight tooth and nail to get that last playoff spot, there is a noticeable gap between where Joe and Baron sit right now compared to us three.  I'll start with Baron.  His success is purely speculative on my point since we need to see what this trade does for him, but his team has been 5th in scoring the past three weeks, and you can mainly thank Forte for that.  He also gets a lot of luck when he plays Tim while Forte's on his bye.  Tim will be missing half his team, including Alshon Jeffery, Joique Bell, Aaron Rodgers, Robbie Gould, and Delanie Walker.  If you add in his trade for Cobb and the reemergence of Tom Brady, a playoff push is seriously possible.  And from my perspective, seeing all three championship winners in the playoffs would make us underdogs not enthused.

Which is why, outside of myself, I'll be hoping Joe's team puts it together during the stretch run.  He's seen his RB scoring increasing, although his QB play has taken a serious poop this past three weeks.  The reason I think Joe is already on the upswing is the soon to be return of Megatron.  That'll only help Stafford start putting up the numbers he can put up.  Plus, there's always Julius Thomas, who has a HUGE leg up on whatever TE Siems is rolling out right now.  The downside to Joe's success, though, is that Golden Tate should see his stats go down as he Megatron comes back.

- I guess no one has noticed Greg Olsen's success recently have they?  But outside of him, Danny's team is looking very meh.

So what can we infer from this data going forward?  For one, unless serious injury hits, we can pretty much say now, more than ever, that Dan, Bryan, and Sean are destined to make the playoffs.  Things can change of course, but that's where the trends are going right now.  If I had to guess where things end up, I'd say Sean gets the top spot, Dan second, and Bryan third.  If either Dan or Sean had one loss, I'd pick Dan to win the regular season.  I think Bryan is susceptible to possibly falling more than the other two, but I'm not comfortable saying he won't make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, for the fourth spot, I'm giving a slight edge to Joe.  Here's eaches remaining schedule:

Joe:
Jeff
Bryan
Siems
Danny
Dan
Jose

Baron:
Danny
Tim
Joe
Sean
Jeff
Dan

I've bolded any games I think they should win.  With the one game advantage for Joe, when he goes into his game against Siems, he should be tied for that final playoff spot.  But Joe has the easier final schedule, and they could very well end the season tied.  And even with his trade, Siems is almost 100 points behind Joe, so the tiebreaker could be huge.  Upsets do happen though.

With that then, here are my mid-season predictions for the rest of the year:

1. Sean
2. Dan
3. Bryan
4. Joe
5. Siems
6. Jose
7. Tim
8. Danny
9. Jeff
10. Arun

And yes, I did artificially boost myself ahead of Tim because I could #spreadsheetshomeboy

You Might Also Like

0 comments