Winter Is Coming. So Are Playoffs

7:28:00 PM

It's a simple formula:

John's record + Lateness of season = more content.

And I know I've been filling you all with content even if it means sacrificing some sleep or work that I should be getting done.  But I can't help myself.  This is the latest my team has had a chance in a season since the 2009-2010 season when I was in position the final two games of the season.  If you'll recall - and you won't - I had to win one of my last two or have Siems lose one of his last two.  And of course, since I've never made the playoffs...

But that's not now.  That's not today!  No, today's content will show you scoring based upon position for each team over the course of the season and the last three weeks (like I did last month), but I'll add in the nice little bonus of a check on people's remaining schedules.

Without any more delay, below are the scoring totals for the season and the last three weeks, respectively, by position.

Season Long Scoring


Three Week Scoring

I don't need to dive too much into these other than to explain the following:

- Sean, Bryan, and Dan still own everyone else
- Katarya, despite his firesale, is still 7th in overall scoring, but 9th in the past three weeks.  The guy behind him, Danny, has now fallen all the way to the bottom in overall scoring.
- Baron is cementing his team's status as the 4th best team with his scoring the past three (actually, four) weeks.
- The big surprise is Jeff.  He's 5th in scoring the last three weeks, thanks in large part to his RB resurgence. Vereen, Ivory, and Mark Ingram have really helped catapult his scoring totals.

But there's more to the rest of the season other than scoring potential.  Let's take a gander at team strength of schedule.  Strength of schedule is based upon scoring totals, not record.  

Like the above, I'll provide a team's remaining SOS based upon season scoring and three week scoring.  Scores in red represent the three highest scoring (and therefore difficult) teams, while green is the opposite.  Final rank of schedule is to the far right.  

 Season Scoring SOS


Three Week Scoring SOS

I'm only going to focus on analyzing the bottom table as enough teams have turned over to make using season totals less accurate than recent data.  

So here's the basics:

- Dan has the easiest schedule going forward.  He gets Danny, and then doesn't have to worry about facing Bryan or Sean.  His toughest matchup will be Baron, who's team could be hot at that time.
- Of course Arun has the hardest schedule.  He still gets Sean and Bryan this season.
- It surprises me a bit, but Sean and Bryan have two of the top four most difficult schedules remaining.  They play each other in the final week in what could be a game for the #1 overall seed.  
- Baron is facing an interesting rest of his season.  His team has scored the fourth most points, but faces the second hardest schedule remaining.  He still has to play Sean and Dan, plus he gets to play potential spoiler in Jeff the weeks between them.  Let's not forget that he's also playing Joe in what is definitely the game of the week this week.  
- With two wins in the last two weeks, Jeff is actually back into the playoff conversation.  But he has to play Bryan and Dan two weeks in a row.  If I'm him, I'd stay in New Zealand.  That seems to be working for him right now.  
- So let's take a look at the remaining teams fighting for the last playoff spot.  In case you were wondering why I say last spot, that's mainly because Sean is one win away from clinching; Bryan clinches with a win and Baron loss; and I'm assuming Dan runs the table here on out.  Here's what we're seeing:
  • Baron - SOS: 2.  Remaining schedule: Joe, Sean, Jeff, Dan.  Projected final record: 7-6 (2-2 in 4 week span).
  • Joe - SOS: 9. Remaining schedule: Baron, Danny, Dan, Jose.  Projected final record: 6-7 (2-2 in 4 week span).
  • Jose - SOS: 6. Remaining schedule: Tim, Arun, Sean, Joe. Projected final record: 6-7 (2-2 in 4 week span).
  • Tim - SOS: 8. Remaining schedule: Jose, Bryan, Danny, Arun. Projected final record: 5-8 (2-2 in 4 week span).
  • Jeff - SOS: 5. Remaining schedule: Bryan, Dan, Baron, Danny. Projected final record: 4-9 (1-3 in 4 week span).
  • Danny - SOS: 7. Remaining schedule: Dan, Joe, Tim, Jeff.  Projected final record: 3-10 (0-4 in 4 week span)
These numbers purely look at scoring over the last three weeks.  So let's dive just a wee bit deeper.
  • The winner of the Joe/Baron matchup will have a big leg up on the other opponent going into the rest of the season.  Joe winning means he has the same record and scoring advantage with two very winnable games ahead of him.  Meanwhile, Baron would be forced to play Sean and Dan to end the season, making a vault over Joe all the more difficult.  But if Baron wins, he goes two games up on Joe.  That pretty much forces Joe to win out, and Baron would need to lose both of his tough games.
  • I basically need to beat Tim this week.  A win, regardless of what happens in the Joe and Baron game, would keep me in contention to make the playoffs.  Because if Joe wins and I win, I should go 1-1 (just like Joe) before we play each other to end the season.  If Baron wins, I still would have a shot because Baron, as mentioned before, should lose his two tough games, and - surprise surprise! - I only sit 40 points back from him in total scoring.  A loss to Tim, however, would mean I would pretty much have to run the table (which would mean beating Sean) and need some luck to make it through.
  • Tim, if he beats me, would either stay two games back of Baron or one game back of Baron and Joe if Joe wins.  Tim has the overall scoring lead on everyone not named Baron in this grouping, which means he's within those 40 points I mentioned above.  Plus, outside of Bryan, his schedule the final two weeks is the easiest of anyone's in the league.  So in reality, the game between Tim and myself will essentially eliminate one player from contention.
  • I love that Jeff's team has gotten tough quickly, but Bryan's team has been an absolute buzzsaw the last three or four weeks.  One loss would eliminate Jeff.
  • Danny needs to run the table and a lot of luck.  And with Dan in front of him, I'm having trouble saying we'll be talking about him as a playoff contender next week.
There you have it.  A long look at what could happen the next four weeks.  But here's what we know:  THIS WEEK IS HUGE.

You Might Also Like

0 comments